Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Sterling pairs on the move.
GBPUSD crawling higher towards resistance at 1.2665 but could move to 1.2846
EURGBP rejected at key resistance. Could be range bound next few week between 0.8865 and 0.8720
GBPJPY higher but rejected at 2022 peak. Could move higher to levels not seen since 2015 around 180
GBPUSD is slowly crawling higher and could test resistance at around 1.2665 shortly. There is RSI divergence however, which indicates a weakening up the short term uptrend indicating a correction. But for now the trend is your friend and GBPUSD needs to close below 1.2340 to reverse that, until a top and reversal indication is in place.
Medium-term the uptrend is intact with no divergence on RSI. GBPUSD seems on track to test and possibly break the 1.2665 resistance level and could move to around the 200 weekly Moving Average area and the 1.618 projection at around 1.2846.
To reverse the medium-term uptrend a close below 1.18 is needed.
EURGBP was rejected at 0.8865 resistance. Failing to close above the pair was sold off last week.
EURGBP could be range bound for the next few weeks and needs to break out of the range between 0.8865 and 0.8720.
A bullish break out paves the way to 0.8990. A bearish break out there is no support until around 0.86-0.8550
Medium-term EURGBP is still in an uptrend but a bearish break of the lower rising trendline could lead to a drop to support at around 0.8550. Divergence on RSI i.e., RSI peaks are declining when the prices are rising is an indication of an imbalance and weakening of the trend.
GBPJPY exploded Friday and broke resistance at around 169.00 only to be rejected at October 2022 peak at around 172.15. A short-term setback seems likely but trend is up and no RSI divergence suggesting higher levels.
To reverse this bullish picture a close below 165.40 is needed
Medium-term. (Monthly chart) We need to look back to levels not seen since 2015 for potential targets and resistance levels.
A close above 172.15 could lead to 180.48 which was the support before the massive sell off in 2015 close to 1.382 projection at 178.42 of the recent correction could.
Positive RSI with no divergence indicates the bullish scenario is likely to unfold.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.