Technical Update - USDJPY and EURJPY closing in on 150. Can prove to be a tough test for the pairs Technical Update - USDJPY and EURJPY closing in on 150. Can prove to be a tough test for the pairs Technical Update - USDJPY and EURJPY closing in on 150. Can prove to be a tough test for the pairs

Technical Update - USDJPY and EURJPY closing in on 150. Can prove to be a tough test for the pairs

Forex 3 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Both USDJPY and EURJPY are closing in on 150 level. Price levels not seen in years. Trend is strong but indicators suggest it is stretched.
USDJPY has formed an almost text book 5 wave uptrend pattern  with the current uptrend as an extended fifth vawe 

USDJPY broke above its 2011 peak and resistance at 147.65. The 147.65 resistance was also within few pips of the 0.786 length of vawe around 147.25 and close to the 1.764 projection (146.51 to be exact) of the correction from 2015 peak to 2016 trough. 200% or 2.0 projection of that correction is at 152.90 which would then be next possible target for USDJPY.
If vawe 5 is to be as long as vawe 3 USDJPY is looking at 157.68.
However, Technically there is no strong resistance before around 160 which is the 1990 peak.
Monthly RSI is stretched currently above 85, the highest reading ever and currently no divergence supporting the view of higher levels in USDJPY.

USDJPY is close to the 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the very volatile 22nd September at 149.34.
1.764 projection is at 150.15.
Short-term on daily time period there is divergence on RSI – at the time of writing – but it is very close to be traded out i.e. price and RSI being pushed higher.  If RSI closes the day above 78.79 the divergence has been cancelled indicating even higher USDJPY.

For USDJP to reverse the short-term uptrend a close below 143.50 is needed.

Source: All Charts and data in this article Saxo Group

EURJPY has been in a broad uptrend since Q2 2022 with high volatility. With the close above 145.63 yesterday EURJPY further confirmed the uptrend. RSI above 60 supporting the bullish outlook.
On weekly chart RSI has broken above its falling trendline indicating that despite there is divergence further upside is likely. If RSI closes above the horizontal dashed line the divergence is cancelled.
To reverse the trend medium term, a close below 137.50 is needed.

Longer term EURJPY has been in an uptrend since 2020 and is closing in on 2014 peak and strong resistance at around 114.80. A spike above 150 should not come as a surprise.
If EURJPY closes above 150 there is no strong resistance until around 170. However, if that scenario plays out (that EURJPY closes above 150) the uptrend will be so stretched some big correction or even reversal should be expected. 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.