Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AUDUSD: The cluster of SMA’s were too strong to penetrate – see previous FX Technical Update. AUDUSD has resumed bearish trend and seems to find some support at around 0.6930. However, down trend seems strong and May lows at around 0.6830 is likely to be tested, after a likely minor rebound next couple of days. To reverse this scenario a move above 0.7285 is needed.
AUDEUR bullish break out of falling trend has been reversed and the pair is now trading below rising trend line. Support at around 0.6550 could be tested.
EURUSD: Got rejected at falling short term trend line a few pips below 1.08. When dropping below key support at 1.0625 bear trend resumed. RSI below 40. A minor rebound to around 1.05 should be expected.
May lows are likely to be tested and taken out.
EURUSD Bigger view: If taking out 1.0350 EURUSD which is quite likely the pair is set for a move towards 1.00.
GBPUSD has broken below May lows. Some minor rebound should be expected next couple of days. Key support is at around 1.21-1.2075. (weekly chart)
USDJPY looks short term toppish currently being rejected at the 1.764 projection of the May correction at 135. Divergence on RSI indicates price exhaustion and a set back down to around 130 is not unlikely. To extend the uptrend 135.20 needs to be taken out.
USDCHF rejected at 1.00 trying to regain strength for a possible new attempt. However, a set back from here in a corrective move down to around 0.98 is not unlikely before buyers are likely to regain control. If 1.00 is broken a move to around 1.0265 is in the cards.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.