The G-10 rundown, express edition
USD – discussed above, not convinced USD upside gets much traction even in short term unless market volatility goes truly ballistic. A clear path to a Covid-19 vaccine brings forward a weaker US dollar.
EUR – if the Pfizer and other drugs continue to bring promise, great news for EUR, although strength could be modest as pro-cyclical beta is lower than for commodity- and EM F.
JPY – the action is in cross-JPY (yen weakness) more than USDJPY as long as market celebrates an improved global growth outlook.
GBP – need that Brexit breakthrough headline – and if Covid-19 vaccine hopes are sustained, EURGBP could have room for 0.8600 in short order, while 1.3500 is the big focus for GBPUSD, freeing up possibly 1.400.
CHF – the Swiss franc punished as global yields spiked higher and safe haven gold out of favour. If we can get post-Covid-19, post-Brexit and a solid EU fiscal package, may be room for a larger adjustment higher in EURCHF. For now, the 1.0900 level is the next hurdle.
AUD – if risk sentiment continues higher, AUD is well positioned for a post-Covid-19 boom if that is where we are headed.
CAD – USDCAD is teasing the major 1.3000 chart point – a deepening hope for a global recovery would open the path lower (stronger for CAD).
NZD – RBNZ is up tonight – and an interesting one. Expect “funding for lending programme” on track, but on the guidance, some chance for a hawkish shift as Governor Orr and company might want to extend the potential horizon for bringing a negative policy rate – or introduce doubt that they will go negative at all, given that the next couple of months could see the deepening promise of a Covid-19 vaccine.
SEK – the weight of Covid-19 on Europe lifting would be a huge boon for SEK, hence EURSEK already teasing below 10.20 at times today and ready for a try toward 10.00 if sentiment backdrop remains positive.
NOK – the path is open to the 10.36 range low in EURNOK and possibly more if oil can break above 46/barrel and the hopeful backdrop is maintained. Epic chart line in USDNOK don around 8.75 (price currently at 9.00).
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1500 – US Sep. JOLTS Job Openings
- 1700 – USDA's Nov. Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
- 1700 – EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
- 2330 – Australia Nov. Westpac Consumer Confidence
- 0100 – New Zealand RBNZ Cash Target Announcement