The G-10 rundown
USD – the US dollar is firm and looking to rally farther if nothing upsets the boat – though not sure that the USD falters even on weaker data outside of pairs like USDJPY.
EUR – waiting for that policy review from Lagarde, until then, the technical focus on 1.1000 in EURUSD, though we’re not expecting fireworks on a break – nor is the options market as 3-month implied volatility for EURUSD options has reached an historic low below 4.5% over the last couple of sessions.
JPY – the yen bowing under the onslaught of strong risk appetite and reach for carry even as long US treasuries remain near recent lows in the yields – could be the most reactive currency to negative US data surprises.
GBP – sterling facing modest headwinds on some of the recent polling data suggesting a tighter race than previously – but a big, widely anticipated MRP poll that generates a bottom-up picture of election outcomes is up tonight at 10 p.m. UK time and could generate GBP volatility.
CHF – the franc remains largely inert, but interesting to see if USDCHF breaking above parity as EURUSD breaks down through 1.1000 generates flow. View on CHF is flat until we drift outside of 1.0850-1.1050 range in EURCHF.
AUD – the Aussie lower still overnight, though still within the microscopic range in AUDUSD after Westpac announced a forecast for two rate cuts from the RBA. The pronounced AUD weakness challenges the narrative that prospects for a US-China trade deal are holding up the market in general
CAD – the USDCAD rally signal has weakened as we await fresh impulses from US and Canadian data surprises. US data weakness could see a softer CAD in the crosses, though that will have to be weighed against China-linked weakness in other FX.
NZD –The RBNZ financial stability report focuses on macroprudential policy to prevent lower rates triggering bubbles. AUDNZD has now dipped more firmly below the 200-day moving average around 1.0570.
SEK – The Sweden Household Lending survey posted a 4.8% year-on-year reading in October, matching the original reading for September, though that one was revised higher to 5.0%, so still the weakest data point of the cycle. SEK not noticing and look firm as EURSEK continues to sustain the recent range break below 10.62.
NOK – very supportive backdrop for NOK needs to be weighed against seasonality, which is challenging for the krone into year end. Looking for that close below 10.05-00 before we have the technical trigger for a NOK rally.
Today’s Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 0930 – Euro Zone ECB’s Lane to Speak
- 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- 1330 – US Q3 GDP revision
- 1330 – US Oct. Durable Goods Orders
- 1445 – US Nov. Chicago PMI
- 1500 – US Sep. PCE Inflation
- 1530 – Weekly DoE Crude Oil/Product Inventories
- 1700 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage
- 1900 – US Fed Beige Book