The G-10 rundown
USD – market moves don’t move in a single direction forever and plenty of room here for a sharp consolidation back higher without erasing the bear move.
EUR – still plenty of room for EU uncertainty in the near term relative to how quick the market has bid up the single currency – the 1.1400 area is major chart resistance and plenty of room likewise for tactical consolidation.
JPY – the beleaguered JPY on the comeback trail and most interesting technicall against the USD as the USDJPY erased the break higher. Elsewhere, the JPY sell-off extended so far recently that only a major market.
GBP – tough to extract meaning from EURGBP or GBPUSD charts as EUR and USD have received plenty of attention to drive new momentum in opposite directions, but sterling uncertainty remains until we pick up the narrative on the post-Brexit transition period trade deal again. Technically, focusing on whether the GBPUSD attempt higher holds here above 1.2650 – although really 1.2500 looks more important locally.
CHF – the recent EURCHF rally got a bit too aggressive there, and looks rather correlated with the move in JPY crosses. Fairly remarkable how quickly the price action is settling back lower – suggests poor liquidity and a squeeze on former shorts that are now re-engaging.
AUD – the 0.7000+ area in AUDUSD was the ideal place for a bit of consolidation to set in (major chart highs back at the turn of this year) and the bulls are taking a few chips off the table - vast room for consolidation without altering the turn of the chart higher.
CAD – the oil rally may have extended too far and interesting to watch the USDCAD price action around the 200-day moving average (1.3465 area). Still, the reversal back lower in USDCAD is so profound at this point that an enormous reversal back to 1.3850 and higher is required to offer any ray of hope for the bulls here.
NZD – the headlines shouting New Zealand’s defeating of the Covid19 crisis allowing late-comers to the longer term AUDNZD upside potential a window of opportunity to get involved here below 1.0700.
SEK – EURSEK has explored the entirety of the big range back towards 10.40 and then some as the Swedish krona has been the star of 2020 – the move may be a bit too much for now as we watch for technical hooks from higher levels for re-establishing shorts.
NOK – EURNOK reached the major milestone at the 200-day moving average around 10.44 and the prior major high was at 10.33. May need to consolidate a bit higher if oil has overdone the recent rally and if we finally get anything resembling consolidation in risk appetite post FOMC or for other reasons.