FX Breakout Monitor: Quiet USD pairs ahead of US jobs report FX Breakout Monitor: Quiet USD pairs ahead of US jobs report FX Breakout Monitor: Quiet USD pairs ahead of US jobs report

FX Breakout Monitor: Quiet USD pairs ahead of US jobs report

Forex 5 minutes to read
John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  The US dollar has backed off from recent highs only slightly and continues to eye a break higher in places ahead of the US March jobs data tomorrow. Elsewhere, precious metals are in a funk and so is the kiwi.

For a PDF copy of this edition, click here.

The USD has backed off slightly after hopeful news on the trade front overnight, especially that the US might give China as long as until 2025 to comply with some terms of a coming trade deal. Tomorrow’s US jobs report might be decisive for the US dollar, particularly interesting if it jolts US treasuries into motion and takes the key EURUSD pair into a breakdown mode below the low close for the cycle of 1.1193. Elsewhere, the weak precious metals are likely to get weaker still if US treasuries sell-off on the  jobs report tomorrow.

Breakout signal tracker

Today we take profit on our EURAUD short – modest pickings, to be sure at only 0.36 of the initial risk, but it is day seven and our maximum holding period is nine days, with tomorrow’s US jobs report offering two way risk for all risk exposed currencies like AUD. We are poised to have a look at long USD trades on a sufficiently strong close to the week, even if choosing a USD direction has been a fool’s errand in recent months.
Source: Saxo Bank
Today’s FX Breakout monitor

Page 1: a sense of rather eerie quiet as the USD majors and minors aren’t yielding any clues at the moment. The AUDNZD breakout is the most prominent development in recent days and a solid close above 1.0500 there suggests a more notable trend change risk after the long-standing downtrend of almost six months. Note that EUR, JPY and oddly, NZD, are all within striking distance of new lows versus the US dollar ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report.
Source: Saxo Bank
Page 2: Here we note that EURSEK is making another sluggish try at the  200-day moving average just below 9.40 and eyeing a possible new low close for the cycle today – would like to see a bit more momentum there to work up any interest. And then we have the South African rand suddenly eyeing an upside breakout versus the US dollar in recent sessions (more below), possibly on a major platinum breakout today.
Source: Saxo Bank

The USDZAR has lurched in choppy fashion from weakness versus the USD to notable strength, possibly on the very important 875 area resistance in platinum falling today on high momentum. South Africa is far and away the world’s largest producer of platinum, supplying some two thirds of world production. Whether the move can continue will likely prove highly dependent on whether global risk sentiment stays supported here, though a sufficiently wild ride for platinum could sway the price action all on its own. Note as well the 200-day moving average near the current price action.
Source: Saxo Bank

We watch the weekly close here with interest, as we would like to take the sell signal if the pair closes below the 1.1200 level tomorrow.
Source: Saxo Bank

Impressively persistent upside action in recent days in AUDNZD, where a move above 1.0500 really starts to break down the down trend and will leave us interested in future upside breakout signals – hopefully not all of the upside arrives on this move here but in a future wave of buying action…
Source: Saxo Bank


The precious metals merit watching here over tomorrow’s US jobs report as strong jobs numbers and a jolt higher in US yields would likely provide the most pressure to the downside here as traders capitulate at new lows and possibly set up a run to the bigger 1250 level.

Source: Saxo Bank

REFERENCE: FX Breakout Monitor overview explanations

The following is a left-to-right, column by column explanation of the FX Breakout Monitor tables.

Trend: a measure of whether the currency pair is trending up, down or sideways based on an algorithm that looks for persistent directional price action. A currency can register a breakout before it looks like it is trending if markets are choppy.

ATR: Average True Range or the average daily trading range. Our calculation of this indicator uses a 50-day exponential moving average to smooth development. The shading indicates whether, relative to the prior 1,000 trading days, the current ATR is exceptionally high (deep orange), somewhat elevated (lighter orange), normal (no shading), quiet (light blue) or exceptionally quiet (deeper blue).

High Closes / Low Closes: These columns show the highest and lowest prior 19- and 49-day daily closing levels.  

The right-most several columns columns indicate whether a breakout to the upside or downside has unfolded today (coloured “X”) or on any of the previous six trading days. This graphic indication offers an easy way to see whether the breakout is the first in a series or is a continuation from a prior break. For the “Today” columns for 19-day and 49-day breakouts, if there is no break, the distance from the current “Quote” to the break level is shown in ATR, and coloured yellow if getting close to registering a breakout.

NOTE: although the Today column may show a breakout in action, the daily close is the key level that is the final arbiter on whether the breakout is registered for subsequent days.


Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.