Brexit endgame likely to see a delay

Forex 7 minutes to read
John J. Hardy

Chief Macro Strategist

Summary:  Sterling is locked back into a nervous range prior to the vote rejecting Prime Minister May’s altered deal. While the market appears comfortable that a no-deal risk is not imminent, the haziness of the timeline and outcome continues to handcuff traders.


UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with its last-minute alterations was voted down with a strong majority, although less strong than the initial vote in January. Sterling was already offered earlier in the day as the market correctly assumed that attorney general Geoffrey Cox’s still dim view of the deal would result in its defeat. Sterling has not collapsed as we still don’t know what the Brexit outcome will be – although I thought it would have adjusted lower. 

Apparently, some (including the author of this behind-the-paywall article from the FT) still believe that May could just yet revive her deal by twisting the arms of hardline Tories. But this appears a minority view as the noise from most quarters is that she has lost control and that Parliament must now take over. Given sterling pricing – neutral relative to levels before this week – it looks like the assumption leans very strongly for a delay rather than a no-deal exit. The immediate prospects for the latter may be ruled out as soon as today, but as we discussed yesterday, negotiating a delay period of more than about eight weeks will be challenging, given the timing of the next EU elections in late May. 

For now, sterling may simply get locked into a choppy range unless May’s deal can do a Phoenix act and surprise us all with last-last ditch breakthroughs in language that can take it over the edge as Tory hardliners would prefer that versus the risk of a path to a second referendum. But the EU is already sending out unfriendly noises on the ability to negotiate any further and will demand a plan for how the UK would use any delay period – EU Commission President Juncker recently mentioned elections in that context. So, a strong vote to avoid no-deal today may boost slightly, but doesn’t eliminate the risk of a long, difficult delay period that could wear on the UK economy and its currency.

Elsewhere, the USD was on the defensive yesterday after a soft CPI print, with the core dipping lower than expected to 2.1% year-on-year and the headline at +1.5% year-over-year. Fed rate expectations are ebbing close to their lowest for the year as we await next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and whether the Fed is ready to get specific on its plans for adjusting the QT schedule. Risk appetite suggests a full reversal sooner rather than later. 

Trading interest

• USD longs taken off at lowered stops but the reversal hasn’t been forceful enough to encourages USD shorts. Very typical of this ugly, choppy market.

• Short EURJPY not performing either on strong risk appetite, but still like it lower if this stock rally fades. We only like maintaining a half position with a wide-ish stop above 126.50.

• Short EURNOK on upticks for expectations of a Norges Bank rate hike – stops above 9.80, targeting 9.65 at minimum.

Chart: AUDUSD

Trading ranges continue to shrink despite Australian rate expectations falling off a cliff in recent months, partially as rate expectations and QT expectations for the Fed have done likewise. Still, the Australia-US two-year swap spread plunged overnight to a new low for the year at negative 80 basis points. That compares with a cycle low last fall at around -90 bps. Keeping the AUD from melting lower are likely strong risk appetite and the hopes that a market friendly (on the headlines at least) US-China trade deal are imminent. We’re still far from believing that the lows for the cycle are in, but with no momentum in this market and pointed headline risks, trading conditions for bears are unfriendly. The 0.7000 area is the next trigger zone lower – a level we’ve trotted out numerous times in this desperately rangebound market.
AUDUSD
Source: Saxo Bank
The G-10 rundown

USD – weak CPI, strong US Treasuries and strong risk appetite are not good for USD prospects. Is the market gunning for a US-China trade deal or an FOMC meeting announcing the coming end of QT... or both?

EUR – the euro rising on negative developments from sterling and the greenback more than on anything the euro has to offer in the positive column.

JPY – positive risk sentiment has hit the pause button for JPY rally prospects, though weakening global yields are supportive. It's hard to believe with the US equity rally threatening to blow the roof off resistance in the S&P 500 (already done in Nasdaq), that the US 10-year yield is at a local low and only a few basis points above the spike low during the massive risk sell-off in December. Both risk-off and lower yields are needed to get USDJPY to punch lower from here.

GBP – as we discuss above, two-way risks remain, and a strong rejection of a no-deal vote in Parliament today won’t necessarily sustain a rally as the endgame remains uncertain.

CHF – the franc taking its cue more from risk appetite than Brexit concerns – but we’re still so bogged down in the range in EURCHF that we struggle to pay attention here.

AUD – Australia weakening overnight on an ugly decline of several points in its main Consumer Confidence survey, which correlates in many economies with employment prospects. This adds to the risk of the RBA having to fold on its optimistic outlook. Australia’s short rates plunged to a new low for the cycle, declining some five basis points lower overnight.

CAD – USDCAD needs to find support here around 1.13350.

NZD – the kiwi thriving at the weak Aussie’s expense, though we are uncomfortable with the relative pricing of the two currencies, given the RBNZ will likely follow on cutting rates if the Reserve Bank of Australia leads. 1.0250 is the next zone of interest in AUDNZD.

SEK – the krona avoiding much of a beating despite a small CPI miss yesterday. Still the market is beginning to price out the Riksbank’s ability to raise rates, given the European Central Bank's new guidance. EURSEK is perhaps only in danger of squeezing through 9.60 on data developments or an ugly round of risk-off.

NOK – NOK higher versus the euro, but the follow-up price action was a bit disappointing for NOK bulls given the strong risk sentiment and increased pricing of a 25 bps hike (you ready that correctly) at next week’s Norges Bank after this week’s strong CPI print and a solid Regions survey yesterday.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)

• 10:00 – Eurozone Jan. Industrial Production
• 12:30 – Canada Feb. Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index
• 12:30 – US Feb. PPI
• 12:30 – US Jan. Durable Goods Orders

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q4

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Head of FX Strategy

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Head of FX Strategy

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.