Will the consumer goods bonanza continue?
Head of Equity Strategy
Summary: In today's equity update we take a look at some of the consumer goods companies that are exposed to the bonanza that is taking place in consumer goods spending as consumers are diverting their spending from travel, leisure activities and gasoline towards consumer goods in general excluding cars. As a result some consumer goods companies are experiencing high growth and we present lists of consumer goods companies to consider.
August retail sales in both the US and Europe were strong hitting record levels. Part of it is a naturally bounce back from depressed levels during the early lockdowns due to Covid-19. As time has progressed our health care sector has become better at treating Covid-19 patients causing the second waves of Covid-19 in the US and Europe to have smaller impact on the health care sector. Only restrictions are enforced and thus retail sales activity can function normally again. On top of that many households are spending much less on travelling and leisure activities than before. Even gasoline consumption is still much lower due to work-from-home increasing disposable income for households. Our theory is that households are reallocating their spending towards consumer goods and delivery services of food and e-commerce packages, and not so much the big-ticket items such as cars.
Go for high quality and brand companies
Zalando’s Q3 numbers yesterday and raised FY20 outlook confirms that consumer goods are doing well, but also Tesco in the UK showed good results the other day. Consumer goods companies such as Nike has also been showing impressive levels of growth since the bottom in March. As a travel and leisure activities remain significantly below normal levels the bonanza in consumer goods will continue. The table below shows high quality consumer goods names (highest return on invested capital) and fastest growing consumer goods companies. Our assumption is that companies with high quality will be better to navigate the uncertain times and companies with a strong brand will be able to lift sales better online, so we recommend investors to incorporate those factors when getting exposure to consumer goods companies.
High quality consumer goods companies (ranked on ROIC)
|Name||Mkt. Cap. USD mn.||Return 5Y||ROIC||P/E|
|Reynolds Consumer Products Inc||6,494||30.50|
|Lululemon Athletica Inc||44,038||523.39||30.23||80.60|
|Monster Beverage Corp||41,754||74.43||28.00||37.08|
|Booking Holdings Inc||73,249||37.15||26.04||30.97|
|Herbalife Nutrition Ltd||7,506||82.82||23.33||16.76|
|boohoo Group PLC||5,487||928.09||22.26||47.98|
|Deckers Outdoor Corp||6,873||294.56||21.71||23.89|
|Taylor Wimpey PLC||5,720||-14.80||20.80||9.93|
|Levi Strauss & Co||6,180||20.65||34.59|
|Royal Unibrew A/S||5,062||194.18||18.26||28.90|
|Boston Beer Co Inc/The||11,233||307.64||17.57||80.90|
Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group
High growth consumer goods companies (ranked on 1-year revenue growth)
|Name||Mkt. Cap. USD mn.||Return 5Y||Rev. growth 1Y||P/E|
|Delivery Hero SE||22,546||94.53|
|Fiverr International Ltd||5,452||81.88|
|Beyond Meat Inc||12,076||68.53||6738.21|
|boohoo Group PLC||5,487||928.09||44.51||47.98|
|Boston Beer Co Inc/The||11,233||307.64||42.00||80.90|
|Ocado Group PLC||23,486||596.49||34.98|
|Campbell Soup Co||14,636||9.84||18.43||16.30|
|Conagra Brands Inc||18,197||29.81||12.06||14.69|
|Nomad Foods Ltd||5,019||50.06||11.38||22.14|
|J M Smucker Co/The||13,361||14.65||10.84||14.73|
|Church & Dwight Co Inc||22,540||125.30||10.64||32.09|
|DR Horton Inc||28,263||169.55||9.86||14.47|
Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.