December 8 2022
What you need to know now about markets
Risk picked up in markets with Putin warning the threat of nuclear war is rising, yet he stopped short of pledging not to use atomic weapons. Traders are also unnerved by growing recessionary fears; and next week’s US CPI read. Will it show CPI fell to 7.3% down from 7.7% YoY? And will the Fed hike by 0.5% on December 15 instead of 0.75%? Uncertainty pushed up bond yields, and pressured equities lower with the S&P500 falling for the fifth day. Oil fell for fourth day to $72,01 erasing all of 2022s gains. Focus is on uranium stocks and the URA ETF, as well as metals with iron ore, copper, and gold higher. Agriculture commodities and equities are back in the limelight, with Putin’s threats pushing wheat prices up 3.1%.The major indices, the Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) skid again. Campbell Soup boils up
S&P500 fell for the fifth session falling below its 100 day moving average again, but managing to close above it as a sign that sell pressure could be easing, as markets await Friday’s producer inflation. Nevertheless, the S&P500 has now lost about 3.6% over five days of selling with the next level of support at perhaps around 3900 still insight. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5% on Wednesday, taking its four-day lost to almost 4.6%.
Outperforming stocks on watch - Campbell Soup and wheat giant General Mills
Generally, there are always outperformers in markets, even when times are tough. A hot scoop for you is that that Campbell Soup shares popped 6% higher on Wednesday, gapping up to $56.18 after the company reported stronger quarterly earnings than expected. Its shares are now 15% off their record high that it hit in 2016. That year, the Syrian war escalated, Trump was elected, and there was a string of terror attacks around the world. And amid war talks now escalating this year Campbell Soup shares entered an uptrend, gaining 45% from last November. If recessionary talks and Russia war concerns linger, you might expect this company to continue to benefit. It has free cash flow, and consistent rising profit growth. Another stock that did well overnight was General Mills, rising 2% to an all-time high, $87.50 after the wheat price jumped 3% overnight on supply concerns returning. We mentioned General Mills as a company to watch in our Five Stocks to Watch video. Despite the wheat price falling 19% from September after supply returned to the market, General Mills has been able to grow its quarterly profit and free cash flows.
Gold stocks charge, Australia’s share market holds six month highs
The Australian benchmark index, the ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) opened 0.3% on Thursday, but holds six month high territory. As for the best performers in the ASX200, clean metal small cap miner Chalice (CHN) rose 12% after drilling confirmed it found new sulphide minerals in Western Australia. CHN would typically be classed as higher risk company as its doesn’t earn income, which is why its share are suffering while interest rates are rising. CHN shares are down 35% YTD. Gold stocks are looking interesting as recessionary calls get louder- gold generally outperforms in a recession. Evolution Mining (EVN) shares are up 5%, continuing to rally it in uptrend and have gained 61%, moving EVN shares up off their 5-year low. In the larger end of town, BHP shares broke higher but profit taking turned its break higher into loss. BHP shares are up 26% this year, with the major miner, along with RIO and Fortescue doing well of late after the iron ore (SCOA) price picked up 7% this month, with China easing restrictions. On the downside, engineering company Downer (DOW) plunged 31% to $3.31, which is its lowest level since April 2020 after Downer downgrading its outlook and flagging irregularities in utilities business.
In FX, the AUDUSD slides on Australia exports falling in October, and imports sinking; supporting the RBA remaining dovish
Australia’s trade surplus fell in October, but less than expected. This reflects that Australia is earning less income as demand for commodities has fallen from its peak, ahead peak energy season and China easing restrictions. The Australian surplus fell from $12.4 billion to $12.2 billion (when the market expected the surplus to fall to $12 billion flat). In October, exports surprisingly fell 1%, vs market expectations they'd rise 1%, while imports fell 1%. This supports the RBA keeping rates low, as such after the data was released, the AUDUSD immediately fell.
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