Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Trading the Thanksgiving week
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Being long in Equities has historically been a good idea according to Stock Trader Almanac. It could be a good idea this year too
According to the Stock Trader Almanac being long going in to the Thanksgiving day – this year Thanksgiving is 25th November – has historically proved to be a good strategy. Being long from Tuesday/Wednesday before selling Friday after has been a good strategy 2 out of 3 years since 1987.
So how would it be this year? S&P 500/US500 is in an uptrend and could very well prove to be a good Thanksgiving market this year topping out around 4.755 in trading days 4-5 day i.e. Friday or Monday testing the upper rising trend line (dark blue).
Currently there is divergence on RSI (highest close was 18th November) and but the MACD line has crossed over the Signal line meaning the short term uptrend is weakening. Volume on the underlying stocks is trending up however, offering some support to the bullish Thanksgiving case.
Short term support at around 4.628. A close below could lead to a sell-off down to 4.551-4.500.
Nasdaq 100/USNAS100 has performed a stronger short term uptrend than the broader market. It has almost reached its medium term upper rising trend line (dark blue line).
Divergence on RSI i.e. RSI peaks are not confirming the new high in the Index. On the other hand volume has been rising during the past week of trading support the uptrend. All in all a mixed picture but the message is the same as for S&P 500, the uptrend is weaking short term.
Support at around 15.946.
DAX/GER40 seems to be testing the lower trend line in the rising channel the leading German Index seems to be trading in. It has formed a Doji Evening like pattern end of last week indicating we could se a correction.
There is no divergence on RSI indicating that if we see further selling pressure (than what we saw Friday) we could see a break of the trendline and a possible test of the support at 15.984. If, however, DAX manage to stay above the support the short term trend will be intact possibly leading to new highs
RSI Divergence explained: When an indicator such as RSI is displaying lower peaks while the underlying price is still making new highs. It is a sign of imbalance in the market, the strength of the trend is weakening. It could be an indicating of an ending of a trend. However, imbalances in financial markets can go on for quite some time. To cancel Divergence out RSI must either 1. Make a new high simultaneously with the price or 2. Close below 40 threshold.
Same can be observed in bear market, just here market makes a new low but Indicator doesn’t.
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