Details Cookies
Cookie Policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

The Week Ahead: Newfound shelter in tech, EVs to take centre stage

The Week Ahead: Newfound shelter in tech, EVs to take centre stage

Jessica Amir
Market Strategist

Summary:  In the final week of March, with quarter-end to take hold, investors are seeking newfound shelter in chip makers, defence companies and tech, taking cover from bank sector woes. Nvidia share are up 83%, Rolls Royce are up 50%. We map out potential investing and trading scenarios for shares and gold, with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge out this week. Why investors are using protective options for their oil holdings. Plus why electric vehicle makers and lithium companies will dominate headlines. Could it be a make or break for Tesla's rally?

The flight to 'quality' drives markets this quarter; with chip makers, defence companies and tech dominating  

It’s the final week of March and end-of-quarter, which is when when portfolio rebalancing takes place and investment managers bring their asset allocations back into alignment. Meaning, moves in markets could be volatile this week. 

The Nasdaq 100 has been as a shelter play, hitting highs and is now up 17% this quarter, with the index gaining traction as bond yields and the US dollar are continuing to fall to new lows. The big story is that Mega-cap tech stocks with robust cash flows are being favoured, amid the economic uncertainty. Nvidia shares are up the most in the US this quarter, up 83% as its data centre and networking business are expected to report strong cash flows in 2023.  Meta shares are up 71% with investors buying into the expectation Meta’s revenue will rise in 2023 and recover from the prior drop. Tesla shares are up 54% this quarter, with its balance sheet expected to ripen from costs cutting, while its future profits could pick as the lithium price has fallen 47% this year. 

In Europe, The Stoxx600 trades up 4% this quarter, and we are continuing to see the same theme play out; that investors are favouring quality businesses with strong cash flows. Rolls Royce shares are up the most this quarter in Europe, up 50%, with its civil aerospace, defence and power generation business units seen as haven-defensive plays. Rolls Royce is in Saxo’s Defence basket, with the basket up 14% this year and 20% YoY. Remember, in times of a recession, defensive sectors such a utilities, healthcare and consumer staples typically outperform, along with defence companies

In commodities the defensive playbook theme dominated as well, with gold gaining strength

Gold is up 9% this quarter, as bond yields and the US dollar index continued to pare back. Gold equites are benefiting too, with Newcrest Mining shares up 28% YTD. But before gold makes a sustained move higher, the market will need to see further evidence. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge released this week, could possibly push gold onto higher ground, if inflation is weaker than expected. Over the medium to longer term, if the Fed pauses rate hikes, which is what former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder thinks should happen, then the case for gold would strengthen.  

Oil is now down 14% this quarter amid recessions concerns

So keep an eye shares in ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Woodside. Some investors have been holding long-term position, in oil and oil equities, pre-empting OPEC could make supply cuts, while others are protecting against potential further oil price falls, by using options. Also consider countries such as Australia could be cutting LNG production from July, in a bid to cut reduce emissions. That could support prices later this year, at a time when demand is expected to pick up ahead for EU winter. 

What’s on the economic horizon for the rest of the week

The Fed preferred inflation gauge, PCE will be centre stage and it could be a major catalyst for markets, with core PCE expected to remain at 4.7% YoY. If its hotter than expected it could result in higher bond yields, a higher US dollar, and that would pressure tech stocks and especially those banks already under pressure. If the Nasdaq 100 does pull back consider, some investment managers might take 'the dip' as an opportunity to buy into quality names in the index. Also consider, as its end of quarter, volatility could be amplified amid profit taking. 

EV makers and lithium talk will dominate company earnings this week 

This week’s calendar is dominated by the EV industry. And watching their outlooks is key. Car makers including China’s BYD, Great Wall and America’s Canoo, report as well as China’s biggest lithium producer, Genfeng.

The market is expecting lithium giant Genfeng to report a 290% jump in income on the year. But its outlook will be vital, as its shares are down 16% this year amid the lithium price pull back. 

So, what do you need to consider with EV car makers? Firstly, the prices of EV makers raw materials have come down considerably, which could point to EV makers costs falling in Q1 of 2023, which may in theory help fast track profit growth, that's if car markets can get their ducks in a row. So what metal costs are down? The Lithium carbonate price is down 47% this year, lithium hydroxide’s price is 11% lower, Nickel is down 21% and Aluminium is 2% lower. And his offsets the 7% lift in the copper price. 

Secondly, consider there is greater than ever competition in the EV market, meaning sales growth for new EV entrants could be challenging. Merc last year announced its newcoming EV would be cheaper than Tesla. That later resulted in Tesla dropping its EV prices, which fuelled an price war. Ford cut prices, along with Lucid, China’s Nio, BYD, Great Wall and Xpeng. But, new entrants such as Canoo and Rivian didn’t cut costs, as they’re grappling with falling cash reserves. While steady hands VW, GM, Volvo are implying they don’t need to cut costs. 


Stay tuned to for 
daily updates, and inspiration
For a global look at markets – tune into our 


Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.