Tesla is losing ground in Europe, US banks and rising yield curve Tesla is losing ground in Europe, US banks and rising yield curve Tesla is losing ground in Europe, US banks and rising yield curve

Tesla is losing ground in Europe, US banks and rising yield curve

Equities 4 minutes to read
Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy

Summary:  Tesla Model 3 was the fourth best-selling pure EV in Europe in November behind Renault, Volkswagen, and Hyundai, which should have shareholders alarmed. Tesla will be successful and become one of the biggest carmakers in the future, but the competition is heating up and that puts the $805bn market value into question. We also take a look at US banks which could rise another 33% this year if we are right about the reflation theme as the industry will be driven higher by a potential 25% valuation multiple expansion and 8% growth in tangible book value.

A month ago, we commented on our Saxo Market Call podcast that Tesla was slipping in European EV sales ranking for October. We pointed out that this was an ill sign since the European EV market is the biggest in the world and that the EV penetration rate of new car registrations in Europe is two times larger than China and five times larger than the US. Some clients wrote to us saying we were missing the timing effects on Tesla sales and that they were typically larger in the last month of quarter. Time will soon tell how big this effect is, but in the meantime, we have got November figures and they still show that Tesla is losing ground.

In November, plugin (hybrid and pure EV) registrations rose 198% y/y compared to the overall car registrations in Europe being down 14% y/y. This took the plugin market share to around the 10% mark with pure EV accounting for 5.4%. What is most striking is that Tesla, despite its $805bn market value dwarfing all other carmaker in the world, is losing ground against local players. Renault Zoe was once again the best-selling pure EV car with the VW ID.3 close after (see table). Number three in November was the Hyundai Kona EV and then on the fourth spot came the Tesla Model 3. While this should worry Tesla shareholders it is even more striking that the Model S and X are not in the top 20 ranking despite direct competing models such as Audi e-tron being on the list.

US banks could have 33% upside on reflation in 2021

We have talked a lot about reflation in the first two weeks of 2021 with our team introducing our Saxo Commodity Sector basket on 4 January to highlight 40 stocks with exposure to the commodity sector which could do well during reflation. But higher inflation is more than the commodity sector. It is also about banks as growth and inflation expectations drive a rise in valuation multiples for banks. From early 2016 to early 2018 when the last reflationary period occurred S&P 500 banks saw their price-to-tangible-book ratio rise from 1.11 to 2. During the current reflation period that started in June 2020 the S&P 500 banks price-to-tangible-book ratio has increased from 1.12 to 1.60.

Source: Bloomberg

If we can expect the same expansion in valuation multiples, that is price-to-tangible-book ratio around 2, and we factor in 8% growth in book value in 2021, then US banks could have an upside of 33% this year. Investors are so far buying this expectation as financials, materials and energy sectors are so far leading the gains this year.


Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.