Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AI related semiconductors hit by heavy selling after breaking key support levels.
Nvidia below 822 key support at 822 could see further down side to 700, possibly lower.
ARM Holdings no strong support until around USD 77
Super Micro Computer eyeing 600, but no strong support until around 492
Bullish correction should be expected but be careful, you could be trying to catch a falling knife
Nvidia. After testing key supports — the gap area — a few times, it finally gave in on Friday. Nvidia was hit by a massive sell-off on Friday, down 10%.
This comes after Nvidia formed two Bearish Engulfing candlesticks, which are strong indications of a top and reversal, and created a double top pattern in the process. The double top was confirmed
On Friday, Nvidia sold off to the 1.618 projection of the double top pattern but could push lower in the coming days.
A bearish move to support at around 742 seems likely.
A daily close below 742 could ignite another wave of selling down below 700, with no strong support until around 661.60. If Nvidia closes below the Cloud area (the shaded area), it will add to the bearish picture.
The RSI closed on Friday below the 40 threshold, further confirming the bearish trend indicating lower levels for Nvidia.
To negate this bearish picture, a daily close above 841 is required.
Disclaimer: Author of this analysis is short position in ARM
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.