Technical Update - European Defence stocks could be resuming uptrends. Kongsberg leading the pack Technical Update - European Defence stocks could be resuming uptrends. Kongsberg leading the pack Technical Update - European Defence stocks could be resuming uptrends. Kongsberg leading the pack

Technical Update - European Defence stocks could be resuming uptrends. Kongsberg leading the pack

Equities 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

  • Corrections in European defense stocks seem to be over, with Kongsberg Gruppen pushing to new all-time highs after earnings
  • SAAB is in a bullish trend and could test previous peaks and all-time highs shortly
  • Hensoldt, Rheinmetall, and Leonardo are trying to establish new bullish trends, but strong overhead resistance could demolish that scenario
Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG:xosl) has jumped to new all-time highs this morning following the earnings release. The share price has reached the 1.618 projection of the recent correction but could very well move higher.

Short-term, there is upside potential to NOK 1,032, and the trend could continue.

However, the strength indicator RSI is showing divergence, indicating uptrend exhaustion, but if RSI closes above its falling trendline on the daily chart, that divergence is likely to be cancelled, supporting higher price levels for Kongsberg.

For this bullish scenario to be demolished, Kongsberg needs to close the gap created this morning, i.e., a close below 901.50.
A close below 870 will reverse the bullish trend, where a close below the rising trendline will be the first indication of that bearish scenario playing out

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

SAAB AB (SAABb:xome) is trading in a bullish trend, and despite showing RSI divergence, it is likely to push higher.

Currently, SAAB is testing minor resistance at 264.70, and if breaking that level, the all-time high at SEK 272.70 is very likely to be tested and taken out.

Upside potential short- to medium-term to 300–310.

An RSI close above its upper falling trendline will further support the bullish outlook for SAAB. A daily close below 235 will reverse the bullish trend.


Hensoldt AG (HAG:xetr) seems to be building an uptrend (higher highs and higher lows) moving in a slightly rising channel. A daily close above EUR36.94 confirms the bullish trend, and if RSI closes back above the 60 threshold, the bullish trend will be further confirmed.

If that scenario plays out, Hensoldt will have the potential to return to previous all-time highs around €45.
Strong resistance around the 40 level.

However, if Hensoldt slides back, closing below 34 will demolish the bullish scenario.
An RSI close back below 40 will confirm that. An early warning of the bearish scenario playing out would be if RSI closes below its lower rising trendline

Rheinmetall AG (RHMG:xetr) has been trading in a falling channel-like pattern since its bearish engulfing top and reversal pattern back in April.
But with RSI showing divergence, the bearish move could come to an end. RSI divergence is an indication of (down)trend exhaustion in combination with the doji evening bottom and reversal pattern end-June.

However, the share price is showing signs of trying to establish an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows since its 14 June sell-off.
A daily close above 535.40 and an RSI close above 60 will confirm a bullish trend.

A daily close above the upper falling trendline in the falling channel and above the 55 daily moving average could be early signs of Rheinmetall establishing a bullish trend.
If the bullish scenario plays out, Rheinmetall is likely to test all-time highs around 571.80, but could very well move to new higher levels.

Strong resistance at around 535.40 and 549. If Rheinmetall fails to establish an uptrend and instead slides lower, a close below 464.50 will resume the bearish trend with downside potential to 441, maybe 403.

Leonardo (LDO:xmil) Since bouncing from support at around €21, Leonardo has been trying to build an uptrend.
A daily close above 23.07 will confirm a bullish trend, and if RSI closes back above the 60 threshold, it will further confirm it.

If closing above 23.07, there would be upside potential to new all-time highs around 26, possibly higher. But if rejected, Leonardo could still be range-bound between 23 and 21.

A daily close below 21 could see a sell-off down to support at around 19.85, possibly lower. If RSI closes below its rising trendline, it would be a warning of the bearish scenario playing out, and a close back below 40 would confirm it.

Author is holding positions in Kongsberg and SAAB

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.