Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
For daily technical updates on AEX25, CAC40 and SMI20 :Cramers Corner Daily Technical Update
AEX is testing the upper boundary of the key support area 872-860 – the gap area.
The strength indicator RSI has for quite some time been exhibiting divergence which is where the market is moving higher but the indicator is moving lower thus indicating trend exhaustion.
A close below 872 and bears are likely trying to close the gap down to 860. If that scenario plays out AEX can drop further support around 849-845
As long as AEX is closing above 872 the uptrend is intact but still in exhaustion mode. If closing above 883 the Index could see its all-time highs being challenged
NETH25 CFD support at 870-867 is being tested. A daily close below 867 is likely resulting in at sell-off down to around 845
CAC40 has gapped lower this morning to just above the 0.382 retracement and key gap support area at 7,875-7,812.
The strength indicator RSI is testing the 40 threshold and a daily close below will confirm negative sentiment
FRA40 CFD bouncing from support at around 7,906. An other break below is likely sending FRA 40 into tailspin towards next strong support at around 7,682. Minor support at around 7,775
SMI20/SWISS20 cfd already in bearish trend gapped lower this morning to the 0.786 retracement at 11,222
The strength indicator RSI is below 40 threshold supporting the bearish trend that could continue further to strong support around 11,060
To reverse the bearish trend SMI is required to close above 11,595, A close above 11,400 will merely just place the index in neutral position
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.