Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Tesla is trading lower Pre-Market this morning currently 5% down an indicated opening around $211 which is close to the support at around 208. A support that was broken last week confirming the downtrend Tesla has been trading in since it broke below 265.
A down trend, illustrated by the falling wide channel lines i.e., lower highs and lower lows, that could take Tesla much lower.
A break below last week’s low at 204 is likely fuel another heavy sell-off. A sell-off that can take Tesla to test the strong support around 180.
For Tesla to reverse the medium-term down trend a close above 314.67 is needed.
Short-term a correction up to around 246 could be seen if Tesla closes above 229.82. RSI is showing negative sentiment on both daily and weekly supporting the view of lower price levels.
No divergence on daily RSI.
All the signs of top and reversal were in place leading to the sell-off. RSI divergence warning about an imbalance and weakening of the uptrend, declining volume since mid-2020 and finally the Doji Evening top and reversal pattern.
Currently Tesla is trading close to the lows of the Pre-peak 2. If prices drop below the lows of that pre-peak/correction Tesla is likely to drop down into Pre-peak 1 area and test the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the all-time low and all-time high just below top of the pre-peak 1 area at 158.95.
Note: The author is holding a short position in Tesla
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.