Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
S&P500 has been rejected at strong resistance at 3,907. RSI was rejected at 60 threshold indicating the October corrective uptrend is over. Minor support at 3,726 is likely to be broken and S&P 500 seems to be set for a test of key support at 3,647. If RSI closes below 40 the bear trend is confirmed. A Bearish trend that is likely to take S&P500 back to October lows around 3,491.
S&P 500 must close above 3,912 to extend the corrective uptrend for a move to 4,100
If S&P 500 closes below October low at 3,491 previously mentioned target and strong support around 3,200 is still in play
US500 cfd/S&P500 future is drifting lower below 0.382 retracement at 3,751. RSI which rejected at 60, is at the time of writing below its rising trend line indicating lower levels for US500.
Support around 3,651-3,630 to be tested is likely
Nasdaq 100 has resumed bear trend with a close yesterday below 10,962. RSI was rejected at 60 and a close below 40 and its rising trendline will further confirm the bearish picture that is likely to take Nasdaq 100 to test October lows around 10,449 possibly lower.If Nasdaq 100 closes below 10,449 there is not strong support until around 9K.
USNAS100 cfd/Nasdaq future is continuing the sell-off that his market yesterday and could test October lows around 10,430 in a few days, possibly before end of week. That scenario is likely to play if RSI breaks below 40.
Dow Jones Index seems to have run out of steam at the 0.786 retracement just before the strong resistance at 33,292. Support at the 0.382 retracement around 31,386. If Dow Jones trades below its 556 SMA it is likely to test strong support around 3,206.
For Dow Jones to resume uptrend and extent it a close above 33,292 is needed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.