Saxo Strats’ 2022 World Cup Predictions: Third Update Saxo Strats’ 2022 World Cup Predictions: Third Update Saxo Strats’ 2022 World Cup Predictions: Third Update

Saxo Strats’ 2022 World Cup Predictions: Third Update

Equities 5 minutes to read
PG
Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy

Summary:  We have updated our model input with new Elo momentum and new squad dynamic factors, and based on these new inputs the model is still favouring the Netherlands closely followed by Argentina and Brazil. From the quarter finals and onwards everything can happen in football as the game in a high variance one with luck playing a big role in the range of outcomes, just like in financial markets.


It is getting closer and everything can happen, even for the Netherlands

After four matches in the first stage of the knockout phase we have chosen to update our model and subsequent monte carlo simulation. We have updated the model input by updating the 1-year Elo momentum factor and squad dynamics reflecting the underlying strength and momentum as we move closer to the finale. Emotions always run high and there will always be disagreements with expert opinion or predictions made by a model as they never fully capture the “truth” seen by the football fan.

Our new model predictions are shown below and still have the Netherlands as the favourite to lift the 2022 FIFA World Cup trophy which has been a consistent prediction since the start of the tournament. The Dutch coach “Iron Tulip” Van Gaal split opinions as many criticise him for playing boring football, but his tactics are always well-thought and if we look at the 1-year change in the Elo rating, then no other team has done as well as the Netherlands. As we move into the quarter finals anything can happen as our prediction probabilities also show. The relative strength between the remaining teams in the quarter finals is so low that in a high variance game like football they can all win as luck plays a big role in football outcomes over a short sequence of games. Our model has increased the win probability for Argentina and Brazil.

Source: Saxo
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.