Bearish breakout coming in the S&P 500?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
The benchmark S&P 500 equities index (US500.I) is forming what looks to be a Rising Wedge pattern testing the lower trendline yesterday.
Breakout from such a wedge usually occurs approximately two-thirds of the way to the apex (where the two lines meet), and we are almost there. Both the Relative Strength Index and and MACD are showing divergence, which indicates a bearish breakout.
A close outside of one of the trendlines is needed for confirmation. If the index indeed breaks out bearish around current levels, our minimum price target would be around 2,731, which is half the pattern height subtracted from the breakout price, as well as about the 0.764 retracement level of the wedge.
We see some support at 2,795. and 2,756.
Expect a pullback after the likely break out where buyers try to pull the market back above the lower trendline.
For the potential bear scenario to not play out, a close above 2,853 is needed (i.e. a close of the gap on the S&P 500 cash index). A close above that level could propel the market to new highs.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.