WCU: Fed U-turn supports demand for gold WCU: Fed U-turn supports demand for gold WCU: Fed U-turn supports demand for gold

WCU: Fed U-turn supports demand for gold

Commodities 8 minutes to read
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  The Fed- and China-fueled risk rally has boosted commodity prices despite evidence of a global slowdown.

Global stocks and risk appetite in general witnessed a major comeback in January. The MSCI World Index rose by almost 8% after dropping by the same percentage amount in December. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, meanwhile, shrugged of its 6.9% December loss to return 5.4%, its best month in almost three years. All three sectors of energy, metals and agriculture recorded gains with cocoa being the only out of 24 commodities showing a loss for the month.
Bloomberg Commodity Index
Source: Saxo Bank
The sharp recovery was supported by the US Federal Reserve chairman Powell’s U-turn on further rate hikes and the outlook for further quantitative tightening, as well as the Chinese government enacting several key stimulus programmes in the form of cutting taxes, interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements. Adding to these developments were the latest trade talks between the US and China, which showed signs of making progress.

The recent change in tone from not only the Fed but also central banks in China, Australia and Europe highlights nervousness about the increased risks to global growth and the need to arrest the slide towards recession. A US recession probability index issued by the New York Fed has risen to the highest level since 2008 while economic data in China continue to deteriorate.

A warning that things may get worse before improving was found in the Chinese manufacturing PMI which fell more than expected to a three-year low. In Europe, Italy fell into recession for the first time since 2013 while the UK economy starts to feel the pain of the Kafkaesque political situation surrounding Brexit.

The strong returns in commodities witnessed during the early parts of January faded somewhat during the final week. Despite one of the coldest winters on record in parts of the US, natural gas priced out of New York nevertheless slumped by more than 9%.

Crude oil, meanwhile, remained rangebound after failing to receive a ‘lower-supply-driven’ boost from US sanctions against Venezuela’s state oil company and Saudi Arabia saying they were cutting production by more than they had agreed to. 
Bloomberg Commodity Index
Industrial and precious metals enjoyed the tailwind from the progress in US-China trade talks and the aforementioned change in tone from the Fed. Gold broke higher as the prospect of future rate hikes were slashed while copper was boosted by the rally in emerging market bonds, stocks and currencies.

Iron ore initially surged by more than 15% following the disastrous dam burst in Brazil. The facility run by Vale, a top global producer, forced the company to suspend 40 million tons/year of production (this sounds like a lot, but it only accounts for 0.2% of annual seaborne trade). Gains were pared towards the end of the week as the production impact was reassessed and after a continued drop in the Baltic Dry Index pointed towards a potential weakening in demand for transport of iron ore and coal.

Gold reached a nine-month high at $1,325/oz after the Fed returned to a neutral stance on rates. It concluded a two-month, $110 rally which was supported by the worst December drop in US stocks since the 1930s. It continued into January after Powell’s January 4 speech in which he made a significant U-turn by acknowledging that the Fed was open to ending quantitative tightening faster than anticipated while saying that it was also the listening to the market’s call for a pause in interest rate hikes.

Gold’s ability to move higher this month despite a strong recovery in global stocks highlights the continued appetite for tail-end protection amid macro-economic and geopolitical worries. Following the US government shutdown, the weekly Commitments of Traders report, which provide insights about speculative positions held by money managers, is not expected to return to normal until early March. This pause in data has left the market somewhat blind in terms of gauging how the major players see the landscape.

Data covering demand for exchange-traded funds backed by gold however continue to show strong demand. During the past two months, total holdings have risen on all but four days to reach 2,280 tons, a near six high.

Having reached $1,325/oz, gold once again needs to consolidate, potentially back towards $1,300/oz. However we maintain an overall bullish outlook and at this stage would only express a correction view using put options. 
Source: Saxo Bank

Crude oil posted its strongest monthly advance since 2015 but despite multiple events and comments providing support it failed to break higher. Having been rangebound for the past three weeks, the short-term direction could be lower as both WTI and especially Brent continue to consolidate within the established $5 ranges. During the past week, the following comments and events failed to give oil the needed boost to break higher.

• US sanctions against PdVSA potentially reducing crude oil exports further
• Saudi Arabia said in an interview that it would cut February production below its voluntarily agreed limit at 10.33m b/d
• The Fed joined other central banks in turning more dovish thereby supporting the growth and demand outlook.
• US weekly crude oil inventories rose by less than expected as Saudi Arabia cuts supplies
• Stabilising risk sentiment with trade talks between China and the US appearing to gain some momentum

WTI crude oil is currently stuck in a $50/b to $55.50/b range.

Crude oil
Source: Saxo Bank
Some movements were seen in the spread between WTI and Brent crude, which narrowed to $7/b, the tightest level since August. The US sanctions against PdVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, helped lift North American prices including WTI, not least due to US refineries being forced to source other heavy crude oil varieties such as Mexican Mars and Western Canadian Select. 
Crude oil

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.