Technical Update - Oil pushing for previous all time highs?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Brent oil is trading within the consolidation area from 10 years ago prior to the collapse in 2015.
Some resistance around $115.76 and $126/brl .
The energy from the Collapse in Brent oil prices back in 2020 gives us 1.764 Fibonacci projection price at $114.36 which is roughly where the possible fifth wave extension is - $116.68 i.e. same length as the third wave. So is this the fifth exhaustive wave higher ?
Normally third wave is the longest but for commodities longest wave is often the fifth. Most likely due to the panic that can arise from rising prices in a commodity everybody needs. If this is the fifth wave and if it will become longer than the third, which currently looks likely, we could see it extend to $126 maybe even $136. However, $126 is a strong resistance level.
WTI crude oil is testing resistance at around $110/brl. If we see a daily close/settlement above there is some resistance around $114.85.
The energy from the Collapse in WTI prices back in 2020 gives us 1.764 Fibonacci projection level almost spot on previous all time highs at $147.26. 1.618 projection at 131.14 could offer some resistance.
For this very bullish scenario to be put on neutral a drop below $95.30 is needed. Currently no divergence on RSI and MACD indicating higher levels.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.