Technical Update - Soft Commodities. Soybeans, Corn, Wheat and Coffee
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Grains are on the rise testing resistance levels. Minor set backs should be expected before next likely move higher. Coffee range bound in a tighter and tighter range. Break out could be imminent
Rounded bottom formation in Soybeans indicates higher levels. After a corrective start to the year Soybeans is resuming its uptrend with the 200 SMA as a support. Some resistance here at the 0,5 retracement level at around $1,426 so do expect some volatility next few day’s as Bears might try to push the price back below the 200 SMA.
However, a break above $1,430 we are likely to see Soybeans moving pretty fast to the 0,764 retracement level at around $1,550. Resistance at around $1,480.
If the price drops below $1,334 the uptrend could be neutralized.
Wheat has broken bullish out of its falling wedge like corrective pattern only to be rejected at the 0.764 retracement level at around $833. A pullback should be expect before Wheat is likely to pick up the bullish move towards November peak at around $863.25. The pullback could take Wheat prices down to test the upper falling trend line but 55 SMA does offer some support. RSI is back above 60 threshold confirming the uptrend.
A pullback below $776 will reverse the uptrend.
Yesterday’s strong move in Corn didn’t last. However, the uptrend is still intact as long as Corn stays above the rising trend line and above $585. Minor resistance at the 0.618 retracement level at around $645 and strong resistance at around $679.
Below $585 will reverse the uptrend
Coffee seems to be forming a Symmetrical Triangle like corrective pattern. Break out could be imminent. If breaking out above $245 new higher should be expected above December peak at $252.35. Bearish break below the lower rising trend line support at $220 is likely to be tested. If taken out next support is around $200
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