XAUUSD

Precious metals pop higher as dollar extends slump

Commodities 5 minutes to read
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Gold and silver have entered September in buoyant mood as they continue their rebound. Driven by a combination of a weaker dollar, lower real yields, inflation hedge demand from money managers and general risk appetite as seen through the continued rally in stocks.


What is our trading focus?

XAUUSD - Spot gold
XAGUSD - Spot silver
XAUXAG - Gold-Silver ratio
IGLN:xlon - iShares Physical Gold
ISLN:xlon - iShares Physical Silver

____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold has entered September in buoyant mood as it continues its rebound towards $2,000/oz. The combination of a weaker dollar, lower real yields and the US Fed Vice Chair Clarida talking about yield-curve control (YCC) are the key drivers behind the latest move higher. Widely considered influential in setting the Fed’s policy, Clarida was more specific in discussing an eventual yield-curve-control policy in a speech yesterday than was Fed Chair Powell in a major speech last week. He said that while conditions for YCC were not "warranted” at the present time, it “should remain an option that the committee could reassess in the future if circumstances changed markedly.”

Whether for this or for other reasons, the USD dropped to broad new lows, especially against the Euro where speculators through futures have accumulated a record short. While US ten-year yields  remained range-bound as per the chart below, the underlying components of real yields and breakevens continues to move in their separate and gold supporting ways.

Today the 10-year US real yield touched a record -1.1% today while inflation expectations as seen through the breakeven rate has reached a 16-month high at 1.82%.

The Gold-Silver ratio (XAUXAG) which measures the value of one ounce of gold in ounces of silver has dropped to 69, the lowest since 2017. The renewed out performance occurred in response to a supportive rally in copper which reached $3.0945/lb in Asia after China reported a better-than-expected Caixin PMI Manufacturing data. In addition to these growth positive news copper has now for several weeks been supported by tight supplies at warehouses monitored by the major futures exchanges together with the weaker dollar, not least against the Chinese Renminbi which has rallied to a 15-month high at 6.82.

Source: Saxo Group

Gold is once again taking aim at the psychological $2000/oz level above which the price has only closed five times back in early August. The trifecta of dollar weakness, falling real yields and the general level of risk appetite should potentially already have seen it back above that level. Perhaps a sign that the period of consolidation may extend a bit further before the price eventually mount a challenge at $2000/oz and the next level of resistance at $2015/oz.

The underlying demand remains firm with the pension funds and real asset managers around the world increasingly waking up to the need for inflation protection. Not because inflation is an issue but just as much because they don’t want to be left without when and if inflation becomes an even bigger theme than now.

Our positive view on precious metals remain unchanged and has if anything been strengthened by the latest developments. The biggest risk to the bullish narrative remains the risk of corrections hitting key markets such as the dollar and stocks. A stronger dollar would reduce the tailwind while a sudden stock market correction may drive the need for cash, something gold liquidation can provide.

Source: Saxo Group

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as CFDs and Margin FX products may result in your losses surpassing your initial deposits. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.
Please click here to view our full disclaimer.