COT: Natural gas bulls stay strong amidst broad retreat COT: Natural gas bulls stay strong amidst broad retreat COT: Natural gas bulls stay strong amidst broad retreat

COT: Natural gas bulls stay strong amidst broad retreat

Commodities 7 minutes to read
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Speculators slashed bullish commodity bets by 19% to 771,000 lots, an eight-week low, in the week to November 13 with natural gas the only major exception.

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending November 13, click here.

Speculators responded to the sea of red price action in the week to November 13 by cutting bullish commodity bets by 19% to 771,000 lots, an eight-week low. All sectors took a hit with net-selling in 20 out of the 26 major commodity futures tracked in this update.

Natural gas was the only major exception with the biggest reductions seen  in Brent, gold, silver, soybean complex and sugar.
Funds positioning
Weeks of crude oil selling turned into a rout last Tuesday when both WTI and Brent dropped by close to 7%. The slump triggered a 54,000-lot reduction in the combined net-long to just 380,000 lots, the lowest since June 2017.

The reduction was driven by long-liquidation in Brent (-32,000) and short-selling in WTI (+10,000). From the record levels reached during Q1, leveraged funds have now cut bullish bets in WTI by 344,000 lots (69%) and Brent by 418,000 lots (66%). The gross-long, meanwhile, has dropped to the lowest since September 2015 while the gross-short has reached a 13-month high.
Brent and WTI: Managed money
The 15% rally in natural gas during the reporting week helped trigger a 17% increase in the net-long across four Henry Hub-deliverable futures and swap contracts to 313,000 lots. This, the biggest bet on rising gas prices since February, was also the highest reading so early in the peak demand season for at least 10 years.  
Natural Gas
Gold and silver were both sold as they hurtled back towards support in response to a stronger dollar and rising PPI. The combination of an 89% increase in the net-short and the failure to break below $1,200/oz helped support the bounce which saw gold finish the week at at $1,223/oz.

The same goes for silver where the break but subsequent failed attempt below $13.95/oz, the September low, helped trigger a 91% jump in the net-short. 
COMEX Gold and Silver
Grains with the exception of wheat was sold but overall the sector has provided little in terms of direction for several weeks now.

Soybeans have struggled to break above $9/bu and CBOT wheat holds onto support at $5/bu while corn has stayed rangebound between $3.6 and $3.8/bu. 
A relative quiet week in softs with the exception of the 49% reduction in the sugar net-long and a cut in the cotton net-long to a 15-month low.
Soft commodities

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.