Gold and silver may spring a 2022 surprise Gold and silver may spring a 2022 surprise Gold and silver may spring a 2022 surprise

Gold and silver may spring a 2022 surprise

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Gold managed a small rally during the final days of 2021 thereby cutting the annual loss to around 3.6%, and while being the worst decline since 2015, it was nevertheless a respectable year for the yellow metal, not least considering the headwinds from rising interest rate expectations and the strongest dollar in six years. Once the dust settles it is very important to watch what the FOMC does and not what it says and with that in mind gold, silver and not least platinum may all spring positive surprises in 2022.


Gold managed a small rally during the final days of 2021 thereby cutting the annual loss to around 3.6%, and while being the worst decline since 2015, it was actually a respectable year for the yellow metal. Not least considering the headwinds from rising interest rate expectations and the dollar which against a wide basket of currencies rose by 5%, its best year since 2015.

Gold is often used by fund managers as a protection against the unexpected, whether it is macroeconomic or geopolitical developments. The wall of money provided by governments and central banks following the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak helped reduce macroeconomic risks while sending the stock market sharply higher resulting in what my colleague called a mindboggling year for equities.

Responding to these developments, total holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by bullion saw a steady decline throughout the year as investors, including some of the largest real money asset managers, cut their holdings by 287 tons, the most since 2013, and thereby reversing parts of the 750 tons that were added in 2020 during the first year of the pandemic.

During the first days of trading in 2022 gold has after reaching a six-week high returned to its established comfort zone close to $1800 per ounce. This the biggest decline in six weeks was triggered by surging bond yields as investors braced themselves for monetary policy tightening in 2022.

The weakness has been driven by a sharp turnaround across some of the other metals, not least platinum, which at one point on Monday slumped more than 50 dollars, thereby seeing its discount to gold rise to a 13 month high above 870 dollars per ounce.

The first couple of weeks in a new year often fails to deliver much in terms of directional inspiration and clues as to what happens next, and until the picture becomes clearer with the regards to the direction of the dollar, the timing and pace of Fed rate hikes, gold may struggle for direction. Key to the ultimate direction hinges, as mentioned, on the direction of the dollar and not least the how high real yields can go. We believe 2022 could offer a rough ride for global stocks as interest rates rise and consumers keep more money in their pockets following a wild year of strong consumer spending.

We need to watch closely what the US FOMC does, and not what it says, as that will create the real impact. Investors getting the Fed actions, and after that the direction of the Chinese economy right in 2022 are likely to be the ones realizing the biggest profits on their investments. We do not believe US real yields can rise to the extent that others are forecasting, and with that in mind and given prospect for US stocks coming off the boil, we believe that gold as well as silver and platinum will offer a positive return in 2022, with the yellow metal once again showing its credentials as an investment that over time improve returns while reducing risk, and overall volatility in a portfolio.

A recovering gold price is likely to result in an even stronger performance in silver, and potentially also platinum. Both metals will enjoy the tailwind from increased focus on the evolving green energy transition with platinum demand, apart from a recovering automobile industry, coming from the production of hydrogen and silver from solar panels and other electrical appliances.

Source: Saxo Group
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.