COT: Oil and copper in speculators' spotlight last week COT: Oil and copper in speculators' spotlight last week COT: Oil and copper in speculators' spotlight last week

COT: Oil and copper in speculators' spotlight last week

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex up until last Tuesday, June 7. A week that saw stocks make a tentative but, as it turned out, futile attempt to recover. Bond yields and the dollar headed higher while the commodity sector led by energy hit another record high.

Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex up until last Tuesday, June 7. A week that saw stocks make a tentative but, as it turned out, futile attempt to recover after better than expected economic data raised the prospect of the US Federal Reserve managing a soft landing. Hopes that was shot down in flames on Friday when US inflation jumped to a fresh 40 year high and consumer confidence, hurt by the rising cost of everything, took a dive. 

Returning to the reporting, bond yields and the dollar headed higher while the commodity sector led by energy hit another record high. 

The latest across-market updates, including crude oil, gold and industrial metals, can be found in our daily Financial Market Quick Take here


The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index which tracks a basket of major futures contracts in energy, metals and agriculture jumped 4% during the reporting week, with gains being led by crude oil, natural gas, platinum, soybean oil and livestock. 

Speculators responded to these developments by increasing their net long exposure to 24 major futures contracts by 4% to 1.7 million lots, still some 23% below the recent peak in bullishness from February 22, before the Ukraine invasion forced volatility targeting funds to cut their  exposure as volatility spiked. 

The increased exposure was concentrated among a handful of commodities led by crude oil, most metals, cocoa, coffee and cattle. 

Energy: Crude oil saw another week of gains, with the 4% jump driving a 20k lots increase in the combined WTI and Brent crude oil long to 514k lots, a 14-week high. Only minor changes were seen among the fuel contracts while a 14% jump in natural gas only managed to attract a limited amount of fresh net buying.

Metals: The hot and cold price action in metals seen during the past month continued and during the week a small uptick in gold helped attract 7.1k lots of net buying, primarily led by short covering following selling in the previous week. Copper’s break above $4.35 helped trigger 16.4k lots of net buying as speculators flipped positions back to a net long of 6.7k. Silver enjoyed the tailwind from copper’s run higher, and the 2.3% gain helped drive a 140% increase in the net long to 7.6k lots, still low from a historical perspective, and reflecting well the wait-and-see currently adopted by many traders.

Agriculture: In grains, the overall net long position across the six major grain and soy contracts saw another weekly reduction, and since hitting a ten-year high on April 22 it has now seen a 27% reduction. The reduction last week was led by soybeans and not least wheat as the talk of a Ukraine grain corridor helped attract some long liquidation. Softs were mixed with speculators reducing exposure to sugar while adding length in coffee and cocoa.


Renewed dollar strength in the week to June 7 was not enough to reverse a recent move to reduce bullish dollar bets. Instead speculators cut the aggregate dollar long versus ten IMM futures and the Dollar index by 7% to $16.2 billion, a six week low. This during a week where most of the major pairs, led JPY, CHF and EUR traded lower against the greenback. 

The 3% rally in USDJPY to a 20-year high helped attract fresh JPY longs from speculators - so far unsuccessfully - looking for bottom. Short-covering meanwhile helped support a 21% reduction in the CHF net short while a renewed rally in crude oil supported an 85% reduction in the CAD short to near neutral.

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming



Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.