Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Summary: This week we expect sovereigns to remain volatile globally. In the United States, investors are still holding on their short bond future positions, but a surge in Covid-19 cases together with President Trump not acknowledging a Biden win is keeping yields from rising. In Europe, there is an upside for the periphery as central bankers discuss the December's stimulus package. In the United Kingdom, Gilts will trade on Brexit deal news, while a rating downgrade from DBRS Morningstar might push investors to reconsider their positioning in the yield curve.
Treasuries will continue to trade mixed. On one side, the market is pricing a Biden win and positive vaccine developments. On the other hand, we are seeing a rise of Covid-19 infections and limited signs of inflationary pressure which hold Treasury yields from rising.
Federal Reserve Presidents across the country remain concerned about the economy. Stricter lockdown restrictions will limit economic growth holding rates from spiking. Among many Federal Reserve Presidents' speeches this week, we believe that the one of Clarida today will be particularly important as he will be commenting on the economy.
We still believe that rising interest rates will continue to be in the spotlight as they might put downside pressure on inflation provoking the intervention of the Federal Reserve. Daily volatility in Treasuries will continue to be high. In the long run, we will most likely see the spread between the 5s30s to continue to widen until it reaches 2016 peak at 140bps. The spread will be mainly moved by the rise of 30-year yields. At the moment the 5s30s is quoting around 123bps.
As Treasuries trade mixed, investors take more risk within the corporate bond space. Year to date, junk bond sales sum up to $387 billion versus $271bn last year over the same period. The option-adjusted spread continues to tighten from the March peak; however, it is still wider compared to where it was at the beginning of the year. It might be one of the reasons why we continue to see junk credits well supported.
In the meantime, in Europe, members of the ECB's governing council continue to discuss over which instrument to use in December to support the economy from a double-dip recession. Madis Mullers last week said that he sees more scope for ultra-cheap loans rather than an expansion of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). Regardless, we still believe that there is scope for European rates to tighten with 30-year Italian BTPs to benefit the most.
Finally, the Brexit saga is far from over. A Brexit deal seems not ready yet, and DBRS Morningstar has downgraded the United Kingdom's long term credit rating from AAA to AA last Friday. The rating agency is concerned about the Covid-19 impact on the economy. We believe that Gilts should benefit from it as they provide a safe haven for the sterling.
Economic Calendar:
Monday, November 16th
Tuesday, November 17th
Wednesday, November 18th
Thursday, November 19th
Friday, November 20th
Saturday, November 21th
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
