Morning Brew September 1 2025

Good morning!

Despite inflation data being in line with expectations and dovish remarks from Chris Waller, indexes traded lower on Friday. The S&P 500 fell by 0.6%, the Nasdaq lost 0.15%, and the Dow dropped by 0.20%. However, for August, stocks remained positive with the S&P up almost 2%, the Nasdaq up 1.6%, and the Dow up 3.2%. The Russell 2000 added 7%, indicating a rotation out of the massive concentration.

The drop on Friday was primarily due to Dell and Nvidia. Dell lost nearly 9% on a weak outlook despite strong earnings, while Alibaba soared by 13%.

Over the past 35 years, September has ranked as the worst-performing month of the year for the S&P 500.

Chinese Equities had a great month at +10%, the Dax in meandering the 24000 since May ending the moth near the level after some ups and downs.

The probability of a September rate cut is now 99%. Ten-year yields are at 4.22% and thirty-year yields are at 4.91%. The USD Index fell to 97.85, EUR/USD is at 1.1685, GBP/USD ended the week above 1.35 again, and USD/JPY is at 147.

Gold and silver ended August strong, with gold at 34447 and silver at 39.75. Gold broke out of the technical sideways pattern – let's see if the breakout survives the wee. At the moment we are certainly looking strong at 3475 and 40.45.  Silver is above 40 for the first time since the Euro Crisis.  Bitcoin looks vulnerable at 107800, just on the 100d MA.

In other news, Meta has been found to have appropriated the names and likenesses of celebrities – including Taylor Swift, Scarlett Johansson, Anne Hathaway, and Selena Gomez – to create dozens of flirty social-media chatbots without their permission, according to Reuters. An Israeli strike killed the Houthi-run Yemeni Prime Minister and several ministers in Sanaa.

Additionally, more than 25 foreign postal services suspended mail to the U.S. in the run-up to the de minimis deadline.

Xi, Modi an Putin meet in Asia at a conference in Shanghai showing strong ties in direct opposition to the US.

Asian PMI fell with the exception of China

Most Trump tariffs have been ruled illegal by the US appeals court. We are starting the week with a US and Canadian holiday, and the highlight will be Friday's Non-Farm Payroll, which is the second to last major input to the Fed Rate Decision. Expect a day with little major moves today unless there is a surprise, of course!

Our Autoinvest will make the next purchasing round on Friday the 5th.

Monday

• US  & Canada  Holiday
• European & Asian PMI & EU unemployment rate

Tuesday

• EU Inflation

Wednesday

• International PMI
• US Factory Orders

Thursday

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Initial Jobless Claims, Tade Balance
• Canada Tr<de Balance

Friday

• De Industrial Orders
• UK Retail Sales
• EU GDP
• US Nonfarm Payroll & Unemployment rate