Morning Brew November 14 2025

Good Morning,

The probability of a rate cut has decreased from one-third to one-half in the last two days, primarily due to more Fed speakers expressing concerns about reducing rates in the current economic climate. Despite yields being stable and the USD Index dropping to 99.20, major indexes experienced significant declines: S&P 500 down by 1.66%, Nasdaq by 2.29%, and Dow by 1.65%. Trading volumes were particularly high, exceeding 20 billion shares. Both Gold and Silver have fallen, with current trading prices at 4173 and 52.60 respectively. The EURUSD is at 1.1635, GBPUSD at 1.3140, and USDJPY at 154.60. Bitcoin has also dropped to 97k.

Notable stock movements include Nvidia losing 4%, Tesla 7%, Alphabet 2.8%, Amazon 2.6%, and Intel 5.2%. Disney fell by 7.8%, partly due to challenges with YouTube, while Cisco emerged as an outlier, rising more than 4%.

Kashkari said he didn’t support the Fed’s last interest-rate cut, Musalem said limited room to ease further; Hammack said policy should remain restrictive.

There appears to be progress in the trade deal negotiations between the US and Switzerland, although no agreement has been reached yet. Swiss markets warrant attention as the Franc remains strong against GBP, EUR, and USD. Although the Swiss Market Index has lost some ground over the past three days, it remains elevated. I anticipate less volatility with a trade deal than with a delay or failure in negotiations, as the deal seems priced in. Detailed information on Swiss concessions remains limited.

In political developments, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves have abandoned their plan to increase income tax rates, marking a significant shift ahead of the budget on November 26.

European financial stability officials are considering creating an alternative to the Federal Reserve's funding backstops by pooling dollars held by non-U.S. central banks, aiming to reduce reliance on U.S. support under the Trump administration.

Verizon plans to cut 15,000 to 20,000 jobs, representing 15% to 20% of its workforce. Meanwhile, Amazon is aligning with Microsoft to support legislation that would further restrict Nvidia's ability to export chips to China, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Today's agenda remains relatively light, with comments from central bankers and the U.S. government expected to be key. Several central bankers are scheduled to speak during the European afternoon and evening. There is still a risk that low approval ratings. could prompt DJT to take attention-grabbing actions