Morning Brew January 19 2026

Good morning,

Tariffs are back in the headlines on this U.S. holiday as Donald Trump has again threatened European nations — this time over the alleged “sale” of Greenland.
On Truth Social, Trump announced an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Great Britain — all of which are already subject to tariffs he previously imposed. The tariffs are scheduled to rise to 25% on June 1.

The EU reaction has been remarkably united, condemning the move and preparing counter‑tariffs on €93 billion worth of goods. Notably, even usually calm and reserved Danes have become unusually vocal, and the level of trust the Trump administration is managing to destroy is extraordinary.

Equities are falling across the board, with the GER40 down 1.5%, the S&P 500 down 0.9%, and the Nasdaq down 1.2%. Bitcoin is following equities, trading 3.1% lower, while precious metals are benefiting from the uncertainty, with Gold up 1.8% and Silver up 4%.

U.S. 10‑year yields have risen above 4.2% for the first time since last September, while the USD Index is falling — not a good sign for confidence in the U.S.
EURUSD is at 1.1630, GBPUSD at 1.34, and USDJPY at 157.80.

Friday was calm outside of precious metals. Investors were cautious about taking large positions ahead of the long weekend, with U.S. markets closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
The Dow ended down 0.17%; S&P 500 down 0.06%; Nasdaq down 0.06%. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq 0.66%, and the Dow 0.29%. Volume on U.S. exchanges reached 18.77 billion shares, above the 16.85 billion average.

Elon Musk is seeking up to $134 billion from OpenAI and Microsoft, claiming he deserves “wrongful gains” stemming from his early support. He also ended up in a heated — and at times entertaining — exchange with Ryanair.

China’s economy grew 5.0% last year, meeting the government’s target by capturing a record share of global demand and offsetting weak domestic consumption.

This week brings limited key economic data. Some important earnings are due, but the main focus will be the renewed trade war between the EU and the U.S. The key issue remains the increasingly unreliable behavior of the current U.S. administration, which is now reneging on an agreement made barely half a year ago — even though all the cards around Greenland were already on the table.

Trade safely — markets may be far too complacent given the mess we are in.

Monday January 19

Data China GDP & Retail Sales; EU Infaltion, Canada CPI US Market Holiday

Speakers: WEF in Davos

Tuesday January 20

Data China Rate Decision; UK Unemployment, Germany ZEW,

Earnings 3m US BancorpNetflix. Interactive Brokes

Speakers: WEF in Davos

Wednesday January 21

Data UK CPI

Earnings Johnson & Johnson, Halliburton.

Speakers: WEF in Davos

Thursday January 22

Data Japan Trade Data, US GDP Final, Initial Jobless Claims, Australia CPI & PMI

Earnings P&G, Intel Alcoa.

Speakers: WEF in Davos

Friday January 23

Data Japan CPI International PMI; University of Michigan

Earnings Ericsson

Speakers: WEF in Davos