Senior Relationship Manager
Résumé: Big Data Week after wild swings
Good morning, I'll start publishing my holiday forecasts earlier, as they are a very strong indicator of market volatility. 😊 We saw wild swings in equities as well as precious metals last week. A deepening rout among software stocks commanded Wall Street's attention, as investors worried about the extent to which AI would upend business models throughout the industry. Further weakness in the tech sector—which holds massive weight in the major U.S. equity indexes—dragged on the market for much of the week, but on Friday, stocks staged a strong rebound: the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 50,000 for the first time (+2.47%), S&P 500 +1.97%, Nasdaq +2.18%. As the strong move came at the end of the first week of the month it draws attention to ETF savings plans coming to the rescue again Amazon dropped 5.6% on Friday after announcing a more than 50% jump in capital expenditures this year, while Nvidia—the world's most valuable company—jumped 7.8%. Advanced Micro Devices surged 8.3%, and Broadcom climbed 7.1%. Earnings season was mixed overall: Disney missed revenue forecasts despite records in its Experiences segment, PayPal plunged 20% on a weak 2026 outlook, but Meta and SanDisk delivered strong gains. Palantir fell to 135 USD and is down 24% for the year. Rheinmetall is near 1600, down 10% in 2026. The SMI edged up 0.31%, led by Givaudan (+2.1%) and Straumann (+1.6%). The GER40 is toying with the 50 Day moving average and seems to be on the move to the 25000 again. Silver fell to almost half of the year's high (near 64 USD) before rising to $77.95; gold ended the week at $4,965 (+15% YTD), platinum at $2,078—amid a brutal 17-24% precious metals crash. This morning we are trading at 5034, 82 and 2110. The USD Index closed at 97.67 (EUR/USD 1.1810, GBP/USD 1.36, USD/JPY 157.20). Bitcoin fell to levels not seen since the Trump election but found support at the 200-week average; it's now at $70k, down 18% YTD. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a big majority in Japan's lower house in Sunday's election, raising the expectation for stimulus measures. U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators discussed an ambitious March goal for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday she thinks one or two more rate cuts may be needed to counteract labor market weakness, where workers are "walking a knife's edge" with higher prices eroding wages. Key Data Outlook Expect volatility from key U.S. releases: CPI (Feb 13), Nonfarm Payrolls (shifted to Wed, Feb 11 due to shutdown), Retail Sales, and sentiment data—crucial for precious metals and Bitcoin. Earnings wave rolls on (e.g., ON Semiconductor, NXP, Disney tomorrow). Monday, 9 Feb 2026 Switzerland: Swiss Consumer Confidence (Jan) Norway: Norway GDP Canada: Bank of Canada Market Survey Eurozone / United States: Selected ECB and Fed speeches Earnings: ON Semiconductor (ON) Q4 2025, Simon Property Group (SPG) Q4 2025, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Q4 2025, Apollo Global Management (APO) Q4 2025, Becton, Dickinson & Co (BDX) Q4 2025 Tuesday, 10 Feb 2026 Norway: Trade Balance (Dec) Canada: Building Permits (Dec) Earnings: Coca-Cola (KO) Q4 2025, Ford Motor (F) Q4 2025, AstraZeneca (AZN) Q4 2025, Spotify (SPOT) Q4 2025, Snap (SNAP) Q4 2025 Wednesday, 11 Feb 2026 China: CPI (Jan), PPI (Jan) Italy: Industrial Production (Dec) Earnings: McDonald’s (MCD) Q4 2025, T-Mobile US (TMUS) Q4 2025, Shopify (SHOP) Q4 2025, Cisco Systems (CSCO) Q2 2026, Humana (HUM) Q4 2025 Thursday, 12 Feb 2026 United Kingdom: GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (Dec), Trade Balance (Dec) Switzerland: CPI (Jan) Earnings: Coinbase Global (COIN) Q4 2025, Airbnb (ABNB) Q4 2025, Applied Materials (AMAT) Q4 2025, Pinterest (PINS) Q4 2025, other notable mid-caps per full calendar Friday, 13 Feb 2026 Eurozone: GDP Q4 (2nd estimate), Trade Balance (Dec) Brazil: Retail or inflation indicator (Jan), depending on official schedule Earnings: NatWest Group (NWG) Q4 2025, Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) Q4 2025, Deere & Company (DE) Q4 2025, Arbor Realty (ABR) Q4 2025, other scheduled mid-caps
Mexico: Mexico Inflation (Jan)
United States: Retail Sales (Dec), Employment Cost Index (Q4), Import/Export Prices (Dec)
United States: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan), Treasury Statement (Jan)
United States: Existing Home Sales (Jan)
United States: CPI & Core CPI (Jan)
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