Morning Brew December 9 2025

Good morning,

Markets are showing signs of nervousness ahead of the U.S. rate decision, with indexes trading slightly lower. Attention is directed towards the bidding war involving Paramount and Netflix as they both look to acquire Warner Bros. Paramount has offered $108 billion USD. Warner Bros Discovery shares surged 4.4%, while Paramount's shares climbed 9% and Netflix's stock fell 3.4%. Axios reported that the company managed by Trump's son-in-law is involved in the bid, providing insight into DJT's interest in the acquisition.

Marvell Technology's failure to gain entry to the S&P 500 caused shares to drop by 7%, whereas Carvana's inclusion resulted in a 12% increase in its share value. This highlights the significance of index membership in today's era of passive investments. Being part of a major index ensures a steady flow of investments.

Nvidia saw gains following news that the U.S. would allow H200 deliveries to China, but the broader AI sector faced pressure due to the announcement that U.S. President Donald Trump would sign an executive order to establish a uniform national policy for artificial intelligence. Tesla was further weighed down by a negative broker outlook report.

Charu took a look at the AI Inddustry:

AI without the bubble: A strategic lens for 2026

• AI leadership is broadening beyond mega-cap tech into semiconductors, industrial automation and power infrastructure - the real “picks and shovels” of the AI buildout.
• A disciplined screen focusing on profitability, cash flow and sensible valuations narrows the global universe to just 15 companies that appear to combine AI exposure with financial resilience.
• 2026 may reward “AI with receipts” - companies delivering earnings, not just narratives, making balance-sheet strength and execution key differentiators as the cycle matures.

Roche is worth watching today, as the company announced several positive updates regarding test results and medication approvals.

European Union members and parliament reached an agreement on Tuesday to ease corporate sustainability laws.

The probability of a 25 basis point cut tomorrow remains at 85%, with 10-year yields rising to 4.17%. This strengthened the USD and negatively impacted precious metals. Gold is trading at 4183 and silver at 58.05.

The USD Index has risen above 99 once again, with EUR/USD at 1.1640, GBP/USD at 1.3330, and USD/JPY at 156.10.

Ahead of the Swiss National Bank decision on Thursday, 38 out of 40 economists polled by Reuters expect no change, while the remaining two anticipate a 25 basis point cut. Rate traders similarly anticipate "no change" at a 94% likelihood.

With today's agenda fairly light and earnings not making headlines, markets may remain calm or exhibit nervous choppiness. The key question, in my view, is whether we will break all-time highs, particularly in the S&P 500.

Tuesday December 9

Royal Bank of Australia Rate Decision

Wednesday December 10

China CPI & PPIFOMC Rate Decision, Bank of Canada Rate Decision

Thursday December 11

Swiss National Bank Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless claims

Friday December 12

Germany Inflation, UK GDP, France CPI