Morning Brew July 27 2021

Good Morning,

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was considered dovish: Underlying inflation in the US increased in July, with the core CPI rising to 3.1% compared to the expected 3%. This increase was driven by higher service prices such as airfares, medical care, and recreation. Costs for tariff-exposed goods rose less than anticipated, strengthening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.

This data increased the probability of a rate cut in September to 98%, and traders are pricing in two and a half cuts by the end of the year. The US deficit continues to climb, making lower interest rates more critical than ever. Donald Trump’s consideration of legal action against J. Powell highlights the heightened tensions.

Nevertheless, US indexes rose between 1.1% and 1.4%, with the Nasdaq closing at a record high. Intel's stock jumped 5.3% following Trump's praise for its CEO, while Meta saw a nearly 3% increase. Sea Limited gained 19%. SAP lost 7% yesterday; there was no major adverse news but reports suggest profit-taking and warnings in the European software sector were the cause.

Perplexity AI has made a $34.5 billion cash offer to acquire Chrome from Alphabet's Google (GOOGL.O), according to the Wall Street Journal. This news comes as US regulators press forward with a landmark antitrust case that may force the search giant to sell the browser.

One-year yields fell to 3.9%, while ten-year yields remain at 4.27. The USD Index fell to 98, with EURUSD nearing 1.17 again, GBPUSD at 1.3505, and USDJPY at 147.90. Gold and silver are trading at 3350 and 38.25, respectively. Ethereum continues its bullish run, while Bitcoin struggles to exceed the 120k mark.

European and Ukrainian leaders will speak with US President Donald Trump at a virtual meeting on Wednesday. With today’s agenda largely empty, the day could either be calm or driven by sudden headlines—trade safely.

Koen has introduced a new format that provides valuable insights: Which options are the most interesting, not because analysts say so, but because traders are actively trading them?

The Open Interest Monitor tracks which options have the highest total open interest across stocks, ETFs, and indices. It highlights where liquidity is deepest, where institutional activity might be concentrated, and which themes are drawing the most attention in the options market. Whether you're seeking trading ideas, better execution, or insights into market sentiment, open interest offers a valuable perspective.

Open Interest Monitor - 12 August 2025 | Saxo

Wednesday August 13

• JP Corporate Goods
• DE HICP
• Speakers: Barkin, Golsbee,Bostic,

  Earnings: Marex, Cisco,

  Thursday August 14

• UK GDP
• France CPI
• EU GDP
• US Initital Jobless Claims , PPI Machine Manufacturing
• Speakers: Barkin,
  Earnings: First Majestic, JD.com. JohnDeere

Friday August 15

• Planned Meeting Trump/Putin in Alaska
• China Retail sales
• US Retail Sales, University of Michigan