Morning Brew April 29 2026

Good morning,

UBS delivered fantastic results this morning: Net profit came in at USD 3 billion versus an expectation of USD 2.3 billion, driven by robust trading activity and strong capital inflows.

Yesterday, U.S. stocks declined after a Wall Street Journal report revealed that OpenAI recently failed to meet its targets for new users and sales. This fuelled  worries about artificial intelligence spending.

The Nasdaq dropped 0.90%, the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, and the Dow slipped 0.05%. The Magnificent Seven stocks took a hit ahead of earnings, with Nvidia down 3.4%, Amazon sliding 1.6%, and Tesla falling 1.4%. OpenAI partners, including CoreWeave and Oracle, also declined, with CoreWeave off 7% and Oracle down 7%. General Motors rallied after raising its profit outlook for the year by $500 million, citing continued strong sales of pickups and SUVs despite rising gasoline prices. In after-hours trading, Starbucks jumped 5% after raising its annual forecasts following 6.2% growth in Q2. Visa also beat expectations, rising 6% as payment volumes continued to climb despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 15.48 billion shares, below the previous 18.11 billion average.

Europe traded lower as well. The DAX dropped 0.3% to 24,018, marking its seventh consecutive day of losses and its lowest close since April 13.

BYD Q1 2026 net profit slumped 55% to 4.08B yuan on weaker China demand, FX losses, and rising financing strain; revenue fell 12%. Singapore's STI and other regional exchanges also declined as traders booked profits on tech-sector names and weighed Middle East outlooks.

Yields and the USD are relatively stable. The USD Index is trading at 98.368, with EURUSD at 1.1705, GBPUSD at 1.3512, and USDJPY at 159.65. Gold is USD 30 lower, while Silver is slightly higher than yesterday morning at 73.75. Bitcoin stands at 77,300, and oil prices are higher at 111.50 in London and 99.70 in the U.S.

In the UK, the 10-year yield has breached the 5% mark again, reflecting expectations for a hawkish hold from the Bank of England tomorrow.

The UAE announced it will quit OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1. According to Ole, this removes the production quota straitjacket that has long limited the oil-rich nation’s ability to fully utilize its expanding capacity. UAE production had gradually risen to about 3.6 million bpd before falling to 2.2 million last month; its stated crude capacity is 4.85 million bpd, with a target of 5.0 million bpd by 2027   In the short to medium term, the market should absorb additional UAE barrels given depleted global inventories and the need to rebuild reserves. Over time, however, the departure raises a broader strategic question: if other producers prioritize market share over quota discipline, OPEC’s ability to manage orderly markets through coordinated supply adjustments may increasingly be called into question.

Today is likely the most important day of this  week, with Canadian and U.S. rate decisions at 2:30 PM and 8:00 PM CET, the subsequent press conferences, and earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet after the bell.

If you’re interested in options, check out Koen’s latest Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings on deck - 28 April 2026.

Meta’s options are pricing a 6.24% move ahead of Wednesday’s earnings print. In each of the last four quarters, the stock actually moved more than 10%. The gap between implied and realized moves is exactly the kind of detail options traders watch heading into major events. This week, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple all report within 48 hours—the densest cluster of mega-cap earnings this cycle.

There is no progress in the Middle East…

Trade safely.

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Australia CPI, Germany CPI, U.S. durable goods, Canada and U.S. rate decisions.

Earnings: UBS, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Ford, Qualcomm.

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Japan industrial production, China PMI, Swiss KOF, Germany GDP, EU inflation, U.S. PCE, ECB and Bank of England rate decisions, U.S. GDP.

Earnings: Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Apple, Reddit.

Friday, May 1, 2026

Labor Day in the U.S. and PMI data.

Earnings: Chevron, Exxon, Moderna, Linde.