Morning Brew April 16 2026

Good morning

Middle East Hopes drive markets to new all time highs: The US 500 is 7032, the US Tech 100 is  2627 the Japan 225 59600.

Washington and Tehran are considering extending the ceasefire to allow more peace talks. A second round of discussions is expected to focus on reopening the strait and Iran’s nuclear program. As part of proposals offered during negotiations with the United States, Iran may allow ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack, provided a deal is reached to prevent renewed conflict. Israel and Lebanon are apparently entering discussions on a ceasefire.

In this environment, traders take the absence of bad news as positive, and the S&P 500 surged 0.8% to a record high of 7,022.95, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4% to reach a fresh all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%. Technology stocks led the gains, with Microsoft rising 4.6% for its best daily performance in almost a year and Tesla climbing 6.7% for its largest percentage increase since November 2025. Tesla announced progress in its chip development, which it hopes to employ in robots. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley posted strong earnings, with Bank of America reporting a 17% profit jump and shares rising 1.8%. Carrier Global was the worst performer in the S&P 500, down over 10%. Robinhood Markets saw the largest increase, rising 10.4%.

Allbirds announced a pivot from shoemaking to AI infrastructure, resulting in a 582% gain. This could be a warning sign, reminiscent of the period when simply adding .com or blockchain to a company’s name would double its value without any justification.

European stocks mostly retreated, with luxury under pressure: Hermes plunged 8.2% as the Middle East war dented sales, and Kering slumped 9.3% as Gucci sales disappointed. The Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.4% from a six-week high as disappointing earnings from regional heavyweights weighed on sentiment. Dutch chip-making equipment giant ASML dropped 4.2% after its strong earnings report failed to impress investors following a 33% rally this year. The DAX in Germany rose 0.09% to 24,066.70, while the FTSE 100 in London fell 0.47% to 10,559.58. The Swiss Market Index closed 0.38% lower.

Japan's Nikkei jumped to a record high, Daikin Industries surged 12.2% after Elliott Investment Management announced it had taken a stake in the air-conditioner maker.

China's economy picked up speed early in 2026, powered by a burst of exports that masked weak domestic demand. GDP was 5.0%, above expectations of 4.8%. Retail sales, however, were disappointing at 1.7%.

Yields are little changed today, with US 10-year at 4.27% and EU at 3.04%. The USD Index remains below 98, with EURUSD at 1.1808, GBPUSD at 1.3575, and USDJPY at 158.70. EURCHF is holding at 0.9220 and USDCHF at 0.7806. Bitcoin remains near 75,000. Precious metals continue to trade favorably, with Gold at 4,830, Silver above 80, and Platinum at 2,142.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded at $91.60 a barrel, while Brent was at $95.15. The EU is working on plans to deal with a looming jet fuel shortage. Airlines are preparing for a potential supply crunch, with the International Energy Agency forecasting jet fuel shortages by June if they can only replace half of the supplies they normally get from the Middle East.

We had a wonderful event with Ole in Zurich yesterday, where he maintained an optimistic stance for metals while stressing risks from any concerns arising out of the Middle East.

Donald Trump threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from his separate seat on the U.S. central bank's Board of Governors if he does not give up the seat on May 15.

Mark Mobius, widely credited as a pioneer in emerging markets investing, died on Wednesday at the age of 89.

Today is the busiest day for economic data this week. The UK GDP at 8:00, EU Inflation at 11:00, and US Data at 2:30 PM and 3:15 PM will be closely watched. Besides that, we can expect some technical buying into equities now that the S&P has reached a new high, sparking FOMO among retail and professional investors.

Sounding like a broken record, we are navigating markets amid the risks of any developments in the Middle East—so keep your risk management tight.

Thursday, April 16, 2026

Data: China GDP, Retail Sales, UK GDP, EU Inflation,  Italy CPI, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Industrial Production,

Earnings: TSMC, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo, BNY, Netflix, Alcoa,

Friday, April 17, 2026

Data: EU Trade Balance, Canada Housing Starts

Monday, April 20, 2026

Data: China Interest Rate, Canada CPI,