Morning Brew April 14 2026

Good morning

While the U.S. begins their reciprocal blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, risk sentiment improves on hopes for talks and comments regarding progress in negotiations by JD Vance.

Charu explained to Reuters, "Markets are trading hope, not resolution, The failed weekend talks did not produce a deal, but they also did not close the door on diplomacy, and that is enough for equities to keep pushing higher for now."

We saw a massive surprise in the Chinese trade data: exports rose only 2.5% versus 8.36% expected, while imports surged 27.8% versus 11.2% expected.

Equities were under pressure along with most risk sentiment-driven instruments, but we saw a strong recovery.

Most noteworthy, Oracle rose 13% after introducing AI features, Microsoft rose 3.6%, and Rheinmetall and OHB were particularly strong in Germany at +2.1% and +10%, respectively. LVMH said the Iran war shaved at least 1% off its total group sales in the last quarter due to lower spending in the Gulf region, and that fewer tourists in Europe added to the weakness. Sales in the core division were down by 2%, below analyst estimates of a 1% decline.

The S&P 500 rose 1% to 6,886.24, erasing all losses since the Iran war began, while the Nasdaq 100 extended gains to a ninth consecutive day, up 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.6% to 48,218.25. Technology and financials led sector gains.

Oil in the U.S.line  is trading at $96.80 even though production numbers are worrying. OPEC+ output fell 7.9 million barrels per day in March due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown. Saudi Arabia’s oil supply slid to 7.76 mb/d in March 2026, the lowest since June 2020 and down from 10.11 mb/d in February.

Gold is currently at 4,769 and silver at 77.10—up 6% off yesterday’s low. Copper hits $6 per pound.

Hungarian stocks rallied sharply, with the Hungarian BUX index finishing up 4.95 percent at 139,459.59 following a landslide victory by the Tisza Party in elections. The HUF gained from 376 to 363.

The USD Index dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of March and U.S. 10-year yields fell to 4.27. Cable crossed above 1.35 and USDJPY is at 159. European 10-year yields remain high at 3.08.

Donald Trump posted a picture of himself as Jesus yesterday, causing quite a stir and raising the story of the Road to Canossa to memory…

The Federal Reserve should "wait and see" before deciding whether to lower interest rates amid the war in Iran, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday.

Hopes for a resolution will be the key driver in markets; earnings are in second place. The IMF will publish it`s growth forecast this afternoon, in January the expectation for global growth had been 3.3% for 2026 let`s see where it is today.

Koen’s update: Saxo Market Compass - 13 April 2026 | Saxo

Charu on Intel:

• Intel’s turnaround is gaining credibility. Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel has moved from balance-sheet defense to strategic offense, with 18A becoming tangible, partnerships adding weight to the story, and the market starting to reprice the company as more than a legacy chipmaker.
• The bull case rests on both tactical momentum and strategic relevance. In the near term, stronger server CPU demand, high-profile partnerships, and improving confidence in execution are driving the stock. Over the longer term, Intel’s domestic manufacturing footprint, foundry optionality, and broader role in AI infrastructure create room for a much larger re-rating if execution holds.
• The risks are just as real as the opportunity. Valuation is no longer forgiving, the April 23 earnings report is a near-term binary test, foundry revenue is still unproven at scale, and competition from AMD, Nvidia, and TSMC leaves little room for delays or disappointment.

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Data: China Trade Data,  US PPI

Earnings: Blackrock, Citi, Wellsfargo,

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Data: Japan Tankan, France CPI, US Import Price,

Earnings: Sika,   ASML, MorganStanley,, Bank Of America,

Thursday, April 16, 2026

Data: China GDP, Retail Sales, UK GDP, Italy CPI, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Industrial Production,

Earnings: TSMC, CharlesSchwab, Pepsico, BNY, Netflix, Alcoa,

Friday, April 17, 2026

Data: EU Trade Balance, Canada Housing Starts

Monday, April 20, 2026

Data: China Interest Rate, Canada CPI,

Earnings: Ericsson, Statestreet,