Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 30 March 2026

Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz delivered a week of whiplash – and markets finished lower.

The Iran war entered its fourth week as the dominant force across every asset class. Monday’s 48-hour ultimatum triggered a broad selloff; Tuesday’s delayed-strike announcement sparked a one-day relief rally; Wednesday’s US 15-point peace proposal briefly lifted sentiment; and Iran’s formal rejection of those terms on Thursday sent equities sharply lower once more. The net result: S&P 500 down for the week, Brent crude near USD 110, global bond yields at cycle highs, the VIX at 27.44, and gold testing its 200-day moving average. Traditional safe-haven correlations broke down – gold fell, the yen weakened despite rising Japanese yields, and institutional options flow was defensively positioned without exception across all five sessions.

Equities

A week of two halves – brief diplomatic relief swallowed by fresh escalation.

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.5% Monday, rallied 1.2% to 6,581 Tuesday, then dropped 1.7% to 6,477 Thursday as Iran rejected the US peace plan; the Nasdaq lost 2.4% to 21,408 the same day. Chipmakers bore the brunt – Nvidia −4.2%, AMD −7.5%, Intel −6.5% – while Valero rose 5.8% as energy was the week’s only consistent sector winner. Super Micro tumbled 33% on chip-smuggling charges.
• Europe: ASML outperformed on SK Hynix’s USD 8bn equipment order. Vestas gained 6% on fresh US project orders; Pandora rose 9.2% on lower precious-metal costs. Edenred fell 17.2% after an Italian antitrust probe. Boliden collapsed 20% on mine disruption; Telecom Italia gained 4.7% on a Poste Italiane bid. The FTSE 100 lost 1.3% Thursday.
• Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI fell 6.5% Monday – Samsung −4.7%, SK Hynix −6.2% – while Japan’s Nikkei dropped 3.5% before partially recovering mid-week.

Market pulse: Equities are geopolitics-led; any sustained recovery requires credible Iran de-escalation, not just a one-day diplomatic headline.

Looking ahead – equities

Nike earnings on Tuesday 31 March are the week’s key corporate event and an early consumer-demand test. Q1 ends Tuesday – expect rebalancing flows. The April 6 Iran deadline is the dominant binary for equity direction. NFP releases Good Friday to closed markets; the full equity reaction defers to Monday 6 April, the same morning the Iran deadline expires.

Volatility

VIX holds above 27 – geopolitics, not earnings, runs this vol market.

• The VIX closed the week at 27.44, anchored entirely to geopolitical headlines. Short-term measures (VIX1D) briefly dipped below 20 during Tuesday’s relief before spiking again as Iran rejected the US plan. Options markets priced an S&P 500 expected weekly move of approximately 178 points (2.74%) at Monday’s open, narrowing to around 80 points (1.2%) by Friday’s close as expiry positioning compressed. Near-the-money calls occasionally traded marginally richer than puts – signalling uncertainty about direction rather than outright fear of an imminent crash.

Market pulse: Volatility stays elevated and range-bound until the Iran situation resolves; the April 6 deadline is the next hard event horizon.

Looking ahead – volatility

Iran’s April 6 deadline creates a hard VIX event. Dealers’ short-put inventory from the week’s protection buying structurally reinforces downside pressure. A credible ceasefire signal could collapse implied vol rapidly; escalation pushes VIX toward 35+. The VIX term structure – front-month elevated but well below spot – is pricing a specific event window, not open-ended fear.

Options sentiment

Protection first, conviction a distant second – across every segment.

All five sessions pointed in the same direction: investors leaned defensive. Index and broad-market hedging was consistent throughout, and the largest technology stocks attracted downside protection on every session from Tuesday onward. Selective long-horizon call buying was present in a handful of names, but it never came close to offsetting the protective tone.

The sector picture added nuance. Energy started the week with genuine upside appetite in selected names, but that eroded steadily and closed on a clearly defensive note. Precious metals swung sharply, with a constructive mid-week session sandwiched between bearish ones; the week still ended on the defensive side. Financials split the room: meaningful protection and genuine accumulation both appeared in size, with no clear sector consensus emerging.

Market pulse: Investors did not abandon exposure, but they consistently paid for insurance – in every segment, across every session.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

April 17 is the dominant expiry horizon. The weight of accumulated downside hedging across indices and growth names creates a structural amplifier on any weak session. A credible Iran de-escalation is the clearest path to rapid protection unwinding and vol compression. Until that signal arrives, the defensive positioning bias is likely to persist.

Digital assets

Crypto tracked equities all week – no safe-haven function on offer.

• Bitcoin ranged USD 67,800–71,000 before closing near USD 68,600; Ether held between USD 2,035 and 2,166. Both tracked equities without divergence. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a USD 171M net outflow on 26 March (IBIT −$42M); Ether ETFs lost USD 92M total (ETHA −$140M, partly offset by other products). Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and most miners remained under pressure; Marathon Digital announced Bitcoin sales to reduce debt. XRP and Solana drifted lower throughout.

Market pulse: Bitcoin shows relative strength within crypto, but institutional conviction remains absent until macro and geopolitical conditions stabilise.

Looking ahead – digital assets

April 6 is as binary for crypto as for equities – de-escalation could quickly restore risk appetite with Bitcoin as the first beneficiary. Monitor weekly IBIT and ETHA flows: a return to sustained positive IBIT inflows is the clearest signal of institutional re-engagement. Ethereum’s underperformance versus Bitcoin will persist until ETH ETF flows reverse.

Fixed income

Bond markets are pricing a rate hike – not a cut – for the first time this cycle.

• US: The 2-year Treasury yield surged 10bps Thursday to 3.98% – its highest this cycle – with futures now pricing a hike rather than a cut as oil-driven inflation dominates. The 10-year closed at 4.42%; the 2–10 spread flattened to below 45bps from 73bps in early February.
• Europe: Germany’s 2-year Schatz rose 11bps in a single session to 2.715% (highest since mid-2024); the 10-year Bund hit its highest close since 2011 at 3.07%. The Germany–France 10-year spread widened to 71bps, the year’s widest.
• Japan: The 2-year JGB reached 1.386% – highest since 1996 – with markets pricing >65% odds of a BoJ hike at the late-April meeting.

Market pulse: Energy-driven inflation has reasserted itself as the dominant macro force, overriding every other central bank consideration globally.

Looking ahead – fixed income

Eurozone flash CPI Tuesday 31 March (consensus 2.5%) will confirm oil-shock pass-through; an upside surprise pushes Bund yields higher. Germany CPI Monday is the first read. NFP on Good Friday defers the full bond-market reaction to Monday 6 April. The BoJ’s late-April meeting is increasingly priced to deliver a 25bp hike.

Commodities

Brent’s record monthly advance is reshaping every other asset class in its image.

• Energy: Brent crude surged toward USD 110 Thursday, logging a near-44% monthly advance – a record. Around 1,000 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf due to war-risk insurance withdrawals. Singapore jet fuel hit USD 222/barrel (+137% since the war began); the gasoil–Brent spread exceeded the 2022 Russia-shock peak. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 31% year-on-year.
• Gold: Gold tested its 200-day moving average at USD 4,113 as ETF outflows hit 85 tonnes for the month (−2.7% of holdings) – the metal is trading as a liquidity asset, not a safe haven.
• Agriculture: Persian Gulf fertiliser disruptions are already curtailing Australian wheat plantings.

Market pulse: The supply shock is structural – until Hormuz reopens meaningfully, energy prices and their inflationary knock-ons will continue to define the macro backdrop.

Looking ahead – commodities

April 6 is the key catalyst: credible de-escalation could trigger a sharp Brent reversal and a gold recovery as the liquidity-selling dynamic reverses. OPEC+ spare capacity to offset Hormuz disruption is limited – watch Saudi Arabia and UAE for any output signals. Fertiliser shortages will increasingly feed into agricultural supply balances from April planting decisions onward.

Currencies

Safe havens in disarray – neither the dollar nor the yen is offering clean shelter.

• USDJPY: Reached 159.85 as Japan’s energy dependence on Hormuz supply weighed heavily on the yen; Japan’s Ministry of Finance warned of “bold actions” before the pair retreated below 159.60. Rising JGB yields would normally support the yen, but the energy-import shock offsets that, keeping USDJPY close to intervention levels.
• EURUSD: Hit a Thursday low of 1.1520, recovering to 1.1550 by Friday.
• AUDUSD: Fell to 0.6872 – its lowest since late January – on weaker risk sentiment and softer Australian February CPI (3.7% YoY vs. 3.8% expected). The Swiss franc also lost safe-haven appeal.

Market pulse: Currency safe-haven hierarchies are being rewritten by the Iran shock; USDJPY near 160 remains the most important technical level in G10 FX.

Looking ahead – currencies

Any fresh USDJPY push toward 160 will re-trigger MoF intervention concern. Eurozone CPI Tuesday directly affects EUR positioning. NFP defers the full dollar reaction to Monday 6 April. AUDUSD has meaningful recovery potential in an Iran de-escalation scenario; further escalation targets early-February lows near 0.6944.

Key takeaways

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the week lower; Thursday alone saw S&P −1.7% to 6,477 and Nasdaq −2.4% to 21,408 on Iran’s rejection of the US peace plan. Nvidia −4.2%, AMD −7.5%, Intel −6.5%.
• VIX closed at 27.44; options flow was defensively positioned all five sessions – institutional put demand in SPY, QQQ, and high-beta single names throughout the week without exception.
• Bitcoin closed near USD 68,600, tracking equities; spot ETF outflows confirmed absent institutional conviction (IBIT −$42M, ETHA −$140M on 26 March alone).
• US 2-year yield hit 3.98% (cycle high); Germany 2-year Schatz 2.715% (highest since mid-2024); Japan 2-year JGB 1.386% (highest since 1996). Bond markets are pricing a hike, not a cut.
• Brent crude logged a near-44% monthly advance – a record. Bloomberg Commodity Index +31% year-on-year. Singapore jet fuel at USD 222/barrel, up 137% since the war began.
• Gold tested its 200-DMA at USD 4,113; ETF outflows hit 85 tonnes for the month. The metal is trading as a liquidity instrument, not a safe haven.
• USDJPY reached 159.85 – one step from MoF intervention. Japan’s energy dependence on Hormuz is the structural driver of yen weakness despite rising JGB yields.

Looking ahead – week of 30 March to 3 April 2026

The week is shaped by one inescapable fact: Trump’s revised April 6 Iran deadline arrives next Monday with negotiations stalled. Markets will price de-escalation versus escalation probabilities throughout the week, keeping cross-asset correlations unstable.

Germany CPI on Monday 30 March provides the first G7 inflation read of the week; Eurozone flash CPI follows on Tuesday 31 March (consensus 2.5%) – an upside surprise could force ECB hawkishness back onto the table. Tuesday also marks Q1-end, with portfolio-rebalancing flows likely to amplify intraday moves. Nike reports earnings Tuesday as the week’s key corporate event. ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday 1 April (consensus 52.3 versus prior 52.4) will be the first April factory read; any deceleration alongside elevated input costs reinforces stagflation concerns.

The defining data point arrives Good Friday 4 April: US Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus +57,000 after February’s −92,000 shock; unemployment expected at 4.4%). Equity and bond markets are closed for Easter. The full reaction therefore compresses into Monday 6 April – the same morning the Iran deadline formally expires. Two binary events stacked on a single Monday open: keep liquidity available and position accordingly.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 30 Mar – Germany CPI (Mar, prelim)
Tue 31 Mar – Eurozone flash CPI (Mar, consensus 2.5%); Q1-end; Nike earnings (NKE)
Wed 1 Apr – ISM Manufacturing (consensus 52.3)
Fri 4 Apr – US Nonfarm Payrolls (markets closed, Good Friday)
Mon 6 Apr – NFP market reaction + Trump Iran deadline expires

Concluding remarks

The week of 23 to 27 March confirmed that the Iran war has fractured traditional macro correlations: gold is selling off, the yen is weakening despite rising yields, and bond markets are pricing rate hikes in a slowing economy. The Hormuz supply shock is structural – stranded vessels, fertiliser shortages, and record refined-fuel margins are not temporary features. With the April 6 deadline approaching and talks stalled, the outcome range remains unusually wide. Maintaining diversification, keeping hedge costs in check, and preserving liquidity for a potentially historic Monday 6 April open is the most defensible posture heading into the Easter break.

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