Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 16 February 2026

(Recap week of 9 to 13 February 2026)

Headlines & introduction

Global markets navigated a week of shifting narratives, as AI optimism, earnings dispersion and softer US inflation pulled sentiment in different directions.

Early gains in US and European equities gave way to profit-taking and renewed technology-sector caution, while bond yields reset lower after a cooler CPI print. Volatility rose but remained orderly, and digital assets consolidated as ETF flows turned selective rather than one-sided.

Equities

US: data sensitivity and earnings dispersion dominate.

US indices opened firmer, with the S&P 500 at 6,964 on 9 February and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.8% (10 February) as AI-linked shares rebounded. However, flat retail sales (11 February) and mixed earnings guidance prompted selective risk reduction. A stronger-than-expected 130k payroll print (12 February) briefly lifted yields, before CPI reintroduced caution. By 13 February, the Dow had fallen 1.3%, the S&P 500 1.6% and the Nasdaq 2.0%.

Single-name dispersion was pronounced. Oracle rose 9.6% (9 February) and Spotify 14.8% (10 February), while Cisco fell 12.3% and AppLovin 19.7% (13 February). Softer CPI at 2.4% year-on-year (reported 16 February) steadied sentiment into the close.

Market pulse: US equities remain highly reactive to inflation and earnings guidance, with leadership rotating quickly.

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Europe and Asia: records fade as stock selection drives returns.

European equities followed Wall Street higher early in the week, with the STOXX 600 touching 621.58 (11 February) before easing to 618.52 (13 February). Earnings divergence drove performance: Siemens Energy gained 8.4% (12 February) and Ahold Delhaize 11.5%, while Adyen fell 21.9% and DSV declined 10.5% (13 February). UK Q4 GDP rose just 0.1% (13 February), reinforcing a modest domestic growth backdrop.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei jumped 3.9% to 56,363 (9 February) before moderating later in the week. Hong Kong traded mixed into Lunar New Year closures, while mainland indices were steadier on policy support signals.

Market pulse: outside the US, performance reflects earnings dispersion and macro cross-currents rather than broad trend momentum.

Volatility

Elevated, but structured.

The VIX rose from 17.36 (9 February) to 20.82 (12 February) as CPI and payroll risks approached, closing at 20.60 into the US holiday (13 February data). Short-dated measures such as VIX1D moved above 21, indicating tactical hedging demand, while SKEW near 142–143 showed ongoing appetite for downside protection.

Options pricing implied weekly S&P 500 moves of roughly ±65 to ±82 points mid-week, expanding toward ±128 points into the next expiry. That reflects event risk rather than disorderly positioning.

Market pulse: investors are hedged, but volatility remains contained within defined ranges.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Constructive engagement, framed by protection.

Options flow across indices and large-cap technology indicated continued participation in risk assets, accompanied by deliberate downside protection. Index-level hedging demand remained steady, while positioning in mega-cap technology combined selective upside exposure with near-term insurance.

In metals, particularly gold, flows were two-sided, blending upside participation with structured protection. The overall picture does not signal panic or wholesale de-risking. Instead, it reflects disciplined exposure management in an environment where macro catalysts and sector dispersion remain active drivers.

Market pulse: capital remains deployed, but increasingly through risk-defined structures rather than open-ended directional bets.

Digital assets

Consolidation amid selective ETF flows.

Bitcoin traded largely between the mid- and high-$60,000s during the week, while Ethereum hovered near $1,950–2,040. ETF flows were mixed: IBIT recorded both inflows (+$26.5m on 10 February) and later outflows, while ETHA saw net redemptions mid-week.

Crypto-linked equities experienced sharper swings, with Coinbase down 7.9% (13 February) before stabilising. The pattern suggests tactical repositioning rather than capitulation, with macro data and rate expectations guiding sentiment.

Market pulse: digital assets are consolidating, awaiting clearer macro direction to re-establish trend conviction.

Fixed income

Disinflation supports a yield reset lower.

Treasuries rallied into week’s end. The 10-year yield fell toward 4.05% (13 February), while the 2-year closed below 3.41%, its lowest since 2022. Earlier in the week, payroll strength had lifted the 10-year above 4.20%, underscoring rate sensitivity to data surprises.

In Europe, the German 2-year yield held near 2.07%, reflecting restrained expectations for rapid ECB easing. Japanese long-dated bonds saw strong demand mid-week before a modest curve steepening following softer Q4 GDP.

Market pulse: bond markets are cautiously leaning toward a slower easing path, conditional on sustained inflation moderation.

Commodities

Energy weakens, gold supported, agriculture diverges.

Brent crude slipped below USD 68 by week’s end after failing to sustain moves above USD 70, as inventory builds and ebbing geopolitical risk weighed. Gold remained supported near USD 5,000, benefitting from softer yields late in the week.

Sugar fell to 13.5 cents/lb amid improved supply prospects and weaker consumption trends, while wheat climbed to a three-month high on crop concerns and short covering. Commodity performance reflected positioning shifts rather than structural demand changes.

Market pulse: commodities are trading tactically, driven by macro sensitivity and flow dynamics.

Currencies

Yield differentials continue to anchor FX moves.

The yen strengthened early in the week, with USDJPY falling toward 152.27 (12 February), before rebounding above 153 as the dollar stabilised. EURUSD traded around 1.19, reflecting shifting US rate expectations.

Sterling was volatile following weaker UK GDP, while AUDUSD briefly tested 0.7150 before retreating. FX movements largely tracked bond market repricing rather than independent risk themes.

Market pulse: currency markets remain yield-led, with the yen a key volatility driver.

Key takeaways

• US equities volatile as AI narrative shifts and CPI cools to 2.4%.
• VIX elevated near 20, but positioning remains orderly.
• US 2-year yield below 3.41%, lowest since 2022.
• Bitcoin consolidates; ETF flows selective rather than capitulative.
• Brent below USD 68; gold supported by softer yields.
• Yen swings mirror rate repricing dynamics.

Looking ahead (16–20 February 2026)

• A shortened week concentrates risk.

  US markets are closed on Monday 16 February for Presidents’ Day, compressing liquidity into four trading sessions. Holiday-thinned conditions often amplify intraday moves when trading resumes.

• Policy insight and inflation in focus.

  The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its late-January meeting on Wednesday 18 February, offering insight into internal debate around inflation progress and the timing of potential rate cuts. On Friday 20 February, the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes Personal Income and Outlays for December, including the PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Confirmation of moderating price pressures would reinforce last week’s yield decline; a surprise could quickly reprice the front end.

• Earnings dispersion continues.

  Walmart reports on Thursday, providing an important read on US consumer resilience and pricing power. Deere offers insight into agricultural and industrial demand. Analog Devices and Palo Alto Networks will test the durability of AI hardware and cybersecurity spending, while Airbus and Rio Tinto add a European industrial lens.

• For active investors, event-driven volatility is likely to persist. For long-term investors, the trajectory of inflation and bond yields remains the primary anchor.
  
  Market pulse: a compressed week with clustered catalysts raises the probability of sharper cross-asset reactions.

Conclusion

Last week demonstrated how quickly sentiment can pivot between growth optimism and disruption concerns. Softer inflation has steadied bond markets and offered tentative support to equities, yet volatility remains elevated as investors assess the durability of disinflation and earnings momentum. With PCE data and FOMC minutes ahead in a shortened week, markets are likely to remain reactive, range-bound and sensitive to policy nuance rather than headline optimism.