Market Quick Take - US Treasury yields rip higher - 11 November 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Hotter US inflation arrived alongside hawkish Fed comments and a fully priced December hike
• Equities: US equities declined as inflation revived rate concerns, European stocks edged higher on falling oil prices, while Asian technology shares rebounded.
• Volatility: Equity implied volatility eased after the inflation data while Treasury volatility rose sharply
• Digital Assets: Crypto held near recent lows while ETF outflows continued and crypto equities fell
• Commodities: Oil and gold rebound after recent selloffs, while tighter US crop forecasts lift grains
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields rip higher after Waller comments and hot US CPI release
• Currencies: USD stages sharp comeback on jump in US treasury yields. USDJPY resistance in focus

Macro

• US October CPI rose 0.4% on the month against 0.3% expected, with core up 0.3% against 0.2%, a third straight upside surprise; year-on-year rates were not published because October 2025 data are missing after last year's shutdown. Fed Governor Waller backed a 25bp hike in December and said a 50bp move could be considered, while Dallas Fed President Logan called for at least two more hikes. Markets fully price a December hike.
• US Treasuries slumped with the two-year yield surging as traders fully priced in a December rate hike, followed by two more by next June, while the 10-year briefly topped 5%, wrong-footing investors who had recently increased their bullish Treasury exposure amid raised stock market volatility.
• US small business optimism dipped to 97.8 in October, while the Reuters Tankan for Japanese manufacturers rose to +27 in November from +22, its highest since August 2021.
• US cash Treasuries are closed today for Veterans Day while equities trade, and ECB President Lagarde speaks this morning. US jobless claims, a 30-year bond auction and the delayed EIA oil report follow on Thursday, with Cisco and Applied Materials reporting after the close, and October PPI is due on Friday.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• US Bank Holiday (equity market open)
• 1200 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
• OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report

Earnings events

• Wednesday: Siemens Energy, E.ON, RWE
• Thursday: Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz, Enel, Brookfield, Merck, Nu Holdings

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.6%, and the Dow lost 0.3% on Tuesday, as hotter-than-expected US inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve comments raised expectations of further interest rate hikes. Technology stocks came under pressure as Treasury yields climbed towards 5%, with Nvidia dropping 5.5% amid company-specific concerns and Microsoft losing 2.2%, while Broadcom gained 3.9% and AMD advanced 1.3%. Financials and energy proved more resilient, highlighting continued rotation between sectors. After hours, CoreWeave gained following strong quarterly results, with revenue surging 168% and management raising its full-year guidance, reinforcing demand for AI infrastructure despite growing concerns over spending and profitability.
• Europe: European equities advanced modestly on Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 gaining 0.3%, Germany's DAX rising 0.3%, and France's CAC 40 adding 0.6%, while the UK's FTSE 100 declined 0.3%. Falling oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions supported sentiment, helping European shares outperform Wall Street despite renewed inflation concerns. Banks led gains, advancing 1.7%, while Edenred surged 6.4% following a favourable Brazilian court decision. Infineon also attracted interest after forecasting revenue growth above 20% in 2027, supported by data centres and power infrastructure. More broadly, European earnings remained encouraging, particularly across technology hardware and materials, suggesting improving corporate fundamentals despite an uncertain economic outlook.
• Asia: Asian equities recovered from weaker openings on Wednesday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining more than 1%, South Korea's Kospi advancing 2.4%, and Taiwan's Taiex rising 3.6%, while Chinese markets lagged. Semiconductor stocks led the rebound as TSMC climbed 3.1% after reporting 59.7% annual revenue growth in October, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix gained 3.3% and 5.5%, respectively. SoftBank moved against the trend, falling after reporting a ¥1.12 trillion quarterly loss, driven partly by substantial charges related to US data-centre equipment and higher financing costs. Meanwhile, Singapore's STI had gained 1.5% on Tuesday, supported by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding's 5.5% advance, highlighting improving sentiment beyond technology.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 19.46 | VIX FUTURES: 19.200 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (151.12) | MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Equity options sold off the event premium as soon as the inflation data was out, and the bond market absorbed the shock instead. VIX1D fell almost a fifth to 13.95 and the VIX slipped to 19.46, its lowest close since last Thursday's AI-led spike, though Nasdaq vol still runs well above the broad gauge after Nvidia's slide.
• The hump in November futures, which spans the 8 to 9 December Fed meeting, flattened further overnight as the front contract slipped below December. The real stress sits in rates: MOVE jumped to 92.44 as two-year yields surged on a fully priced hike. Options price about 0.65% for today and 1.21% into Friday's PPI.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~73,689 -0.02% | ETHEREUM ~2,060 +0.45% | IBIT 41.68 -1.51% | ETHA 46.49 -3.27% | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• The hot inflation print flushed leveraged longs out of crypto, leaving bitcoin near an 11-week low, and the selling then spread to the listed names. Spot bitcoin ETFs lost about USD 95m on Tuesday, a fourth straight outflow, and ether funds extended their own losing run.
• AI-exposed miners fell hardest: IREN dropped almost 8% as brokers cut targets after its Microsoft deployment slipped, and higher yields hit every debt-funded data-centre builder. MARA moved the other way, up 10.54% on a USD 500m buyback after selling bitcoin to repay debt. Strategy fell 3.60% with bitcoin now trading below its average purchase cost, while NYSE chose Avalanche for tokenised settlement.

Commodities

• Oil: Brent trades higher at USD 92.5 per barrel following a two-day decline that saw the January front-month contract settle at its lowest level since 31 August, briefly dipping below USD 90 intraday. The weakness followed President Trump's signal that further strikes on Iran were unlikely, while US officials suggested sanctions and the naval blockade were exerting sufficient pressure. WTI is up 0.8% at USD 86.7, while London gasoil trades near USD 1,290 per tonne, equivalent to USD 173 per barrel, highlighting continued tightness in diesel, jet fuel and other refined distillate products despite the sharp decline in crude prices.
• Metals: Gold rebounds to USD 4,055 after slumping around 2% to near USD 4,000 on Tuesday following a hotter-than-expected US CPI report. The release came shortly after Fed Governor Waller backed a 25-basis-point December rate hike without ruling out a larger 50-basis-point move. Treasury yields surged as traders fully priced in a December hike and two additional increases by next June, with the selloff amplified by liquidation of recently established bullish Treasury positions. Higher yields and a stronger dollar weighed on gold, although support around USD 4,000 has held for now, with resistance at USD 4,155.
• Agriculture: US soybean and corn futures rallied sharply from multi-month lows after the USDA released tighter-than-expected supply forecasts. Corn benefited from larger-than-expected cuts to production and inventories, lifting wheat despite expectations of abundant global supplies. Corn's prolonged decline since September had driven a dramatic speculative positioning reversal, from a record net long of 431,000 contracts to a net short of 23,000, leaving the market vulnerable to short covering should the technical and fundamental outlook improves.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields leaped higher Tuesday, particularly after the release of the higher-than-expected US CPI data for October as it had the market repricing forward Fed expectations. Also, earlier in the day, the US Fed’s Waller said that he favoured a rate hike in December, among other comments. The benchmark US 2-year yield surged 17 basis points to 4.74%, a stunning reversal of the recent slide in rates. At the longer end of the yield curve, the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose 11 basis points to close the day at 4.99%, back lose to the key 5.00% level. A US Treasury auction of 10-year notes drew the weakest demand since early June as the auction tailed.US markets are closed today.
• US high yield corporate bonds rose, but not as quickly as US treasury yields on Tuesday. The Bloomberg index we track of the spread between US high yield bonds and US treasuries tightened further Tuesday by six more basis points, taking the spread to 320 basis points.

Currencies

• The US dollar rebounded sharply Tuesday on the jump higher in US treasury yields on both the comments from the Fed’s Waller and the hot US CPI release. EURUSD was smashed back lower from a 1.1251 high all the way to below 1.1150 at one point, the second day in a row of sharp reversals. Similarly, GBPUSD reversed off a 1.3459 high to end the day below 1.3350, while AUDUSD reversed back lower and tested the lows since early this year below 0.6850 before finding support.
• USDJPY squeezed back above 158.50 and almost hit 159.00 in early trading. This is a key resistance zone that has so far bottled up the price action, with the sense that the huge squeeze higher in US treasury yields would support a rally to even higher levels, all while the market is warily wondering whether Japanese officialdom will intervene to support the yen as it has on multiple occasions in recent months.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis