Quick Take Europe

Market Quick Take - 27 June 2025

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo-Strats
Saxo Strategy Team

Note: This is marketing material.

Market Quick Take – 27 June 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

  • Equities: US tech, banks rally; defense stocks surge; tariff risks ease
  • Volatility: VIX drops; stable environment; watch for sudden shifts
  • Digital assets: BTC steady; IBIT/ETHA inflows; crypto ETFs expand; mining sector consolidates
  • Fixed Income: US yields soften on persistent Fed Chair speculation
  • Currencies: USD consolidates after hitting three-year low
  • Commodities: Steep weekly loss led by energy, grains and tired-looking gold
  • Macro events: Eurozone Jun. Confidence Surveys & US May PCE Inflation

Macro data and headlines

  • The US economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, the first decline in three years, driven by reduced consumer spending and exports. Consumer spending rose 0.5%, the slowest since 2020, and exports grew 0.4%.
  • According to Reuters, Trump announced signing a deal with China on Wednesday and mentioned a potential upcoming deal with India, adding that China is beginning to open up.
  • Core consumer prices in Tokyo's Ku-area increased by 3.1% in June 2025, down from 3.6% in May and below the expected 3.3%. This is the first slowdown since February, but still above the Bank of Japan's 2% target.
  • Japan's retail sales grew by 2.2% in May 2025, below the expected 2.7% and slower than April's revised 3.5%. This marked the 38th consecutive month of growth, supported by rising wages.
  • Japan's unemployment rate remained at 2.5% in May 2025 for the third month, meeting expectations. Unemployment dropped by 40,000 to 1.72 million, while employment increased by 33,000 to a record 68.37 million.
  • Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez risks a backlash from the Trump administration for opting out of the NATO commitment by European members signed this week to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. Trump said that Spain was trying to get a "free ride" and would pay twice the tariff rates of other EU countries, theoretically not possible to enforce if the US strikes a deal with the EU as a whole.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0645 - France flash Jun. CPI
0700 - Spain flash Jun. CPI
0900 - Eurozone Jun. Confidence Surveys
1230 - Canada Apr. GDP
1230 - US May PCE Inflation
1400 - US Jun. Final University of Michigan Confidence

Earnings events

  • Tuesday - Constellation brands

    For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.


Equities

  • US: US stocks pushed higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.8% to close at a record 6,141, while the Nasdaq advanced nearly 1%. Optimism grew on expectations for up to three Fed rate cuts this year, reinforced by mixed economic data and continued cooling inflation. Tech and bank shares led, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs hitting new highs after the Fed proposed easing leverage rules. Tariff worries faded as the White House signaled flexibility on deadlines, and speculation intensified about President Trump nominating a new Fed chair before year-end.
  • Europe: European markets ended mixed as investors balanced upbeat US tech momentum, defense-sector rallies, and ongoing tariff talks. Germany’s DAX outperformed (+0.64%), powered by defense and industrial names like Rheinmetall (+7.3%) and Airbus. France’s CAC 40 was flat as defense gains offset retail weakness. UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.19%, lifted by mining and oil stocks, with BAE Systems up nearly 4% on NATO’s increased spending pledge. Despite strong sector moves, subdued consumer sentiment and looming US-EU trade deadlines kept a lid on overall gains.
  • UK: The FTSE 100 edged up 0.19% to 8,735, as miners (Anglo American +7%) and defense (BAE Systems +3.8%) benefited from higher commodity prices and NATO’s 5% GDP defense target. Exporters lagged on pound strength. Retail sentiment remained weak, extending a nine-month decline. Shell and BP rose, with Shell denying BP takeover rumors. Investors focused on the Israel-Iran ceasefire and upcoming US-EU tariff deadlines, keeping broader sentiment cautious.
  • Asia: Asian markets mostly climbed, led by Japan’s Nikkei, up 1.6% to a five-month high as tech stocks rallied and inflation softened, reducing pressure for rate hikes. Chinese and Hong Kong shares were steadier but on track for strong weekly gains, helped by optimism over a US-China rare earths deal and a holding Israel-Iran truce. South Korea’s KOSPI slipped on profit-taking after recent rallies. Across the region, investors remained watchful ahead of the July 9 US tariff deadline.

Volatility

Market volatility continues to drop, with the VIX—Wall Street’s fear gauge—back near levels last seen before Middle East tensions. This calmer backdrop has helped stock markets grind higher, giving investors more confidence to stay invested. For long-term investors, this means a more stable environment to build or hold positions. But it’s also a good reminder: periods of calm don’t last forever, so staying diversified and prepared remains key.


Digital Assets

Bitcoin is steady near $107,500, while Ether holds around $2,437. Institutional demand remains strong: BlackRock’s IBIT ETF stays active, holding over $70 billion in assets, while ETHA, though down 27% year-to-date, continues to attract inflows. Recent court decisions kept Ripple in the spotlight, while Invesco became the ninth firm to file for a spot Solana ETF, reflecting ongoing expansion in the crypto ETF space. Big players like Tether and Hut 8 are scaling up bitcoin mining, shifting the landscape toward larger, more centralized operators.


Fixed Income

  • US Treasury yields fell yesterday all along the curve before bouncing back slightly in the overnight session, with the 10-year treasury yield benchmark at 4.26% after a seven-week low of 4.24% yesterday. The 2-year benchmark, so heavily impacted yesterday by speculation that Trump would be very early to nominate a dovish Fed Chair to replace Fed Chair Powell next May bounced back to 3.74% after trading as low as 3.71% yesterday.
  • Japanese government bond yields rose despite June Tokyo CPI data showing slightly softer than expected headline- and core CPI data. The two-year JGB benchmark yield rose a basis point to trade above 0.74%, while the 10-year benchmark also rose slightly to 1.43%.

Commodities

  • Following a strong month, the Bloomberg Commodities Index reversed sharply lower this week, losing around 4%, driven by energy weakness (-9.7%) as the Middle East risk premium collapsed, while crop-supportive weather weighed on the grains sector (-5.2%), and an ongoing correction in tired-looking gold (-2.2%). Partly offsetting these was a strong week across the industrial metal sector, led by a tight supply-led squeeze in copper (+4.8%).
  • Gold’s inability to respond to bullion-friendly news, such as this week's dollar and yield decline, highlights a market that remains in consolidation mode, raising the risk of a deeper correction amid a broad risk-on sentiment as the Middle East ceasefire holds and traders focus on the prospect of US trade deals with China and ten major trading partners. Gold weakness curbs further advancement for high-flying silver and platinum, both losing ground in early Friday trading.

Currencies

  • The US dollar consolidated some of yesterday's losses, with the EURUSD back below 1.1700 overnight after posting an intraday high yesterday of 1.1744. USDJPY bounced back to as high as 144.80 overnight after posting a 143.75 intraday low yesterday, trading 144.50 this morning.
  • The Canadian dollar was one of the strongest currencies yesterday, with USDCAD swooning all the way to a 1.3618 low before rebounding toward 1.3650. The strength may be on signs of stronger fiscal spending from the new government under Mark Carney, who is grappling with a weaker economy due to Trump tariffs. Yesterday's Canada's parliamentary budget officers asked for Carney to provide an update of the government's finances, and Carney fast-tracked a bill to speed up a number of major energy infrastructure and mining projects that will soon become law.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Les informations contenues sur ce site web vous sont fournies par Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA («Saxo Bank») à des fins éducatives et informatives uniquement. Ces informations ne doivent pas être considérées comme une offre ou une recommandation d'effectuer une transaction ou de recourir à un service particulier, et leur contenu ne doit pas être interprété comme un conseil de toute autre nature, par exemple de nature fiscale ou juridique.

Les transactions sur titres comportent des risques. Les pertes peuvent dépasser les dépôts sur les produits de marge. Vous devez comprendre le fonctionnement de nos produits et les risques qui y sont associés. En outre, vous devriez évaluer si vous pouvez vous permettre de prendre un risque élevé de perdre votre argent.

Saxo Bank ne garantit pas l'exactitude, l'exhaustivité ou l'utilité des informations fournies et n'est pas responsable des erreurs, omissions, pertes ou dommages résultant de l'utilisation de ces informations.

Le contenu de ce site web représente du matériel de marketing et n'est pas le résultat d'une analyse ou d'une recherche financière. Il n'a donc pas été préparé conformément aux directives visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche financière/en investissement et n'est soumis à aucune interdiction de négociation avant la diffusion de la recherche financière/en investissement.

Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Suisse

Nous contacter

Select region

Suisse
Suisse

Le trading d’instruments financiers comporte des risques. Les pertes peuvent dépasser les dépôts sur les produits de marge. Vous devez comprendre comment fonctionnent nos produits et quels types de risques ils comportent. De plus, vous devez savoir si vous pouvez vous permettre de prendre un risque élevé de perdre votre argent. Pour vous aider à comprendre les risques impliqués, nous avons compilé une divulgation des risques ainsi qu'un ensemble de documents d'informations clés (Key Information Documents ou KID) qui décrivent les risques et opportunités associés à chaque produit. Les KID sont accessibles sur la plateforme de trading. Veuillez noter que le prospectus complet est disponible gratuitement auprès de Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA ou directement auprès de l'émetteur.

Ce site web est accessible dans le monde entier. Cependant, les informations sur le site web se réfèrent à Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. Tous les clients traitent directement avec Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. et tous les accords clients sont conclus avec Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA et sont donc soumis au droit suisse.

Le contenu de ce site web constitue du matériel de marketing et n'a été signalé ou transmis à aucune autorité réglementaire.

Si vous contactez Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA ou visitez ce site web, vous reconnaissez et acceptez que toutes les données que vous transmettez, recueillez ou enregistrez via ce site web, par téléphone ou par tout autre moyen de communication (par ex. e-mail), à Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA peuvent être transmises à d'autres sociétés ou tiers du groupe Saxo Bank en Suisse et à l'étranger et peuvent être enregistrées ou autrement traitées par eux ou Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. Vous libérez Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA de ses obligations au titre du secret bancaire suisse et du secret des négociants en valeurs mobilières et, dans la mesure permise par la loi, des autres lois et obligations concernant la confidentialité dans le cadre des divulgations de données du client. Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA a pris des mesures techniques et organisationnelles de pointe pour protéger lesdites données contre tout traitement ou transmission non autorisés et appliquera des mesures de sécurité appropriées pour garantir une protection adéquate desdites données.

Apple, iPad et iPhone sont des marques déposées d'Apple Inc., enregistrées aux États-Unis et dans d'autres pays. App Store est une marque de service d'Apple Inc.