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Macro Dragon: Count-Down... in the Red Corner, the Orange Sensation... in the Blue Corner, the Pushup Machine Macro Dragon: Count-Down... in the Red Corner, the Orange Sensation... in the Blue Corner, the Pushup Machine Macro Dragon: Count-Down... in the Red Corner, the Orange Sensation... in the Blue Corner, the Pushup Machine

Macro Dragon: Count-Down... in the Red Corner, the Orange Sensation... in the Blue Corner, the Pushup Machine

Macro 2 minutes to read

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Count-Down... in the Red Corner, the Orange Sensation... in the Blue Corner, the Pushup Machine 

 

Top of mind...

  • We covered the busy wk + month/quarter end on yest – WK # 40... End of 3Q, Supreme Court Nominations , 1st US Presidential Debates + Trumps Tax Returns

  • Within the next few minutes, we should have the kick-off of the 1st US presidential debate, which will be one of three to go down. While its debatable how much debating will actually be going on, it should at the very least be entertaining

  • Eleanor Creagh touched on the debates here o/n: Gearing up for the Presidential debate

  • Red Corner: In the red corner, we have the flaming orange sensation, the master of spin, bankruptcies & more fiction than Sci-fi convention – the infamous & famous Mr. Donald Trump. It is worth noting that from a legacy perspective, Mr. Trump has at least two under the bag – the first will be on Supreme court justice nominees (further skewing the courts to the right, in particular if Barrett goes through).

  • Blue Corner: In the blue corner, someone who is no stranger to the White House, the pushup trojan, Joe Biden. Biden’s legacy is also likely secured on at least two historic fronts: One – helping Barack Obama (African & American Heritage) make history, by playing QB as his Vice President (& without going after oil in Iraq mind you!).

  • Two – already having done that by nominating Harris (African & Indian Heritage) as his VP & if he does take the office – that is likely going to be a Three Peat, as Biden is unlikely to serve his entire term, let alone two (likely ageist bias there).

  • In similar tones to Trump, whilst Biden has released his tax returns, by no means is his closet skeleton free – with a son having earned hundreds of thousands of dollars sitting as a board member on a little known Ukrainian Gas company, to allegations of groping & inappropriate composure around women, etc.

  • CNN on a 101 around the debate – guess we should run that side by side with Fox eh?

 

On The Radar Today…

  • 1st Presidential debate early doors Asia morning 0900 SGT / 2100 ET

  • CH: Official PMIs due with 51.3e & 54.6e for mfg. & serv., Caixin Mfg. PMI 53.1e/p

  • AU: Building Approvals, Private Sector Credit

  • EZ: GER Retail Sales & Jobs data, FR Flash CPI

  • US: ADP, Final 2Q GDP QoQ -31.7%e/p, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Crude Oil Inv., Kashkari @ 23:00 SGT, Bowman @ 0140 SGT-

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Dragon’s Must Reads…

 

  • We keep hearing about “K”, catch the latest Steen’s Chronicle: Beware the implications of the K-Shape future (hint more divergence than we have seen so far!)

    Why the letter K defines society, economics, politics and markets - plus how this new macro model impact the construction of your portfolio going forward.

  • John Hardy dropping a roadmap US Election Primer: The Final Sprint to November 3rd

    We sort through important dates in this final sprint phase of the absurdly long US presidential election cycle. Historically, we have seen significant shifts in the polling in the final weeks leading up to the election. As well, we consider factors that can change the odds between now and Election Day on November 3rd.

  • Saxo’s US Election Cheat Sheet Which cuts into the three potential pathways into the elections, probabilities around them, as well as short & long-term positions across equities, bonds, commodities & currencies.  

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Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy

  • Billionaire coalition creates trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy

    The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
    Read article

  • French President Macron resigns

    The political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
    Read article

  • Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate

    As markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
    Read article

  • EU Army forces EU down path to full union

    With continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
    Read article

  • A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030

    In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
    Read article

  • UK holds UnBrexit referendum

    Following a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
    Read article

  • Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation

    History tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
    Read article

  • OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset

    Sanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
    Read article

  • USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system

    Following the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
    Read article

  • Tax haven ban kills private equity

    With the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
    Read article
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