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Macro Brief: A first look at US Q4 GDP
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: Today’s focus in our Macro Brief series is US Q4 GDP, which will be released at the opening of the US session.
The consensus expectation is for a strong figure at 2.4% QoQ but downside risks are quite high, and we should be prepared for a more disappointing print, reflecting deceleration in personal consumption and a sharp ongoing slowdown in housing investment.
The US government shutdown in January probably had little impact on economic activity as it has been mitigated by a pickup in state spending that should be one of the most important contributors to growth in Q4, along with private fixed investment.
As we know quite well, investors don’t pay too much attention to the past so, looking ahead, and based on preliminary data, we can say that 2019 Q1 GDP is looking softer but still strong. The two most negative sectors are still the same as in 2018: the motor industry and real estate. For 2019, we expect that USD GDP growth will continue to slow, dropping to probably 2% which is still a very decent performance considering we are at the end of the business cycle and that financial conditions are less accommodative.
Today's Calendar
07:45 - France Q4 GDP
08:00 - Switzerland Feb. KOF Leading Indicator
08:30 - Sweden Q4 GDP
08:30 - Sweden Jan. Retail Sales
12:00 - South Africa Budget
13:00 - Germany Feb. Flash CPI
13:00 - US Fed's Clarida (Voter) out Speaking
13:30 – US GDP
13:30 - US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
14:45 - US Feb. Chicago PMI
15:30 - US Weekly Natural Gas
01:15 - US Fed Chairman Powell to Speak
01:45 - China Feb. Caixin Manufacturing PMI
(All times GMT)
The US government shutdown in January probably had little impact on economic activity as it has been mitigated by a pickup in state spending that should be one of the most important contributors to growth in Q4, along with private fixed investment.
As we know quite well, investors don’t pay too much attention to the past so, looking ahead, and based on preliminary data, we can say that 2019 Q1 GDP is looking softer but still strong. The two most negative sectors are still the same as in 2018: the motor industry and real estate. For 2019, we expect that USD GDP growth will continue to slow, dropping to probably 2% which is still a very decent performance considering we are at the end of the business cycle and that financial conditions are less accommodative.
Today's Calendar
07:45 - France Q4 GDP
08:00 - Switzerland Feb. KOF Leading Indicator
08:30 - Sweden Q4 GDP
08:30 - Sweden Jan. Retail Sales
12:00 - South Africa Budget
13:00 - Germany Feb. Flash CPI
13:00 - US Fed's Clarida (Voter) out Speaking
13:30 – US GDP
13:30 - US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
14:45 - US Feb. Chicago PMI
15:30 - US Weekly Natural Gas
01:15 - US Fed Chairman Powell to Speak
01:45 - China Feb. Caixin Manufacturing PMI
(All times GMT)