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Q1 Outlook for Traders: Five Big Questions and Three Grey Swans.
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Strap yourself in for key market questions that must be answered in 2026.
Markets continue to price that Iran War ended yesterday.
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today, we discuss the markets continuing to price forward expectations that Hormuz Strait uncertainty will lift quickly from here, especially when one looks at the very steep backwardation in crude oil futures and US equity market sentiment. As well, we note that the critical signals in energy market pricing are to be found in key refined products more than crude itself. We also look at the eight G10 central banks set to meet this week, why precious metals are under pressure and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Today’s Links
USD in terminal decline or is the US set to use stablecoins to dollarize the global economy? Does the US have China over a barrel with this Hormuz Strait naval escort idea? About those thousands of Chinese fishing boats in geometric formations… Markets too complacent as Iran War continues? Total economic war, China style Data centers, state of play in nuclear power, Oklo and more. On today’s podcast, I mentioned a financial services ETF and its relative weakness as a possible negative harbinger of the outlook for equities as financials are often seen as a leading sector due to the credit cycle. Below I substitute that ETF with the US’ largest commercial bank JP Morgan, showing at some major negative turning points in which the broad S&P 500 was booming to new highs when the financials and JP Morgan had already turned lower and were not confirming that high. No indicator is a sure thing, but this is a loud one that demands explanation before we are to believe that, even if we do get a normalization of flows of oil and gas through the Hormuz Strait and very soon, the market is just set to turn back higher again. The huge internal rotations across equities over the last several months are another sign that something deeper and profound is going on in this market.
Again, have a listen to a great conversation among some analysts who I admire (but don’t necessarily 100% endorse, though I also appreciate their humility), including Michael Every, Brent Johnson (of the US Dollar Milkshake Theory) Izabella Kaminska and Whitney Baker - the last is someone I was not familiar with before listening to this conversation and she certainly holds her own.
The very busy Shanaka Anslem Perara certainly thinks so: Very interesting analysis that suggests the US is aggressively playing the energy card to shore up its leverage against China as we wind toward a possible Trump-Xi summit, with the USD as reserve currency angle in play as well - depending on whether China joins to help re-establish traffic through the Hormuz Strait with naval escort.
Are they there to provide cover for possible shenanigans? Craig Tindale weighs in.
You know my view - the FT’s Katie Martin thinks they are too complacent, too.
A Chinese company acquired a major antimony mine in Canada back in 2009, the country’s only of its kind and a significant source of global antimony supply, only to shutter it in 2023, a year before embargoing its own exports of antimony to the US which spiked the price some nine-fold. Antimony is useful for many industrial applications but it is a mission-critical element for military ones, like hardening surfaces and for ammunition. The Bureau substack with an extensive coverage of this interesting story (you can do a Free Trial for access).
This interview highly recommended by the legendary “chigrl”, Tracy Shuchart, who wrote a piece on her substack throwing shade on the impact of the big strategic reserve release.Chart of the Day - JP Morgan / S&P 500 Triptych
Questions and comments, please!
We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
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