What: US March inflation report
When: 12:30 GMT (14:30 CET) on Wednesday, 10 April 2024
Expectation: CPI YoY 3.4% vs 3.2% (Feb) and core CPI YoY 3.7% vs 3.8% (Feb)
How will market likely react? US inflation has been running hot recently, with housing prices remaining sticky. Meanwhile, growth resilience from the US has prompted markets to push out Fed rate cut expectations, and just over two rate cuts are priced in for this year. Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments still suggest that he thinks the current inflation jump is a bump in the path of disinflation, and March CPI will be a key test of that narrative. If core CPI is higher than expected (upside surprise), then the reflation theme will gain more traction in markets. If core CPI is lower than expected (downside surprise) then markets can bring forward rate cut expectations back to price in the first full rate cut for June/July.
The below shows our views of market direction across key asset classes related to the US inflation report for both the upside and downside surprise outcomes.
Why does it matter? US inflation reports have for two years been a key events impacting the market’s pricing of Fed’s policy rate. Earlier this year the market was pricing as many as seven US rate cuts, but recent inflation reports showing persistent inflation has caused the market to now only pricing in two and a half rate cuts by December this year. Some market participants are even beginning to talk about no rate cuts at all this year. As the chart below shows, all inflation components except core services have come down and this is the reason why the market will obsess about the core CPI rate.
2024: The wasted year
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.
Embrace the metal revolution on the commodity market in the coming year, with a focus on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and aluminum.
The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?
The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.
Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.
