Macro Dragon: Talent, Leviathan, Inflation Must Reads & FOMC Mins...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Talent, Leviathan, Inflation Must Reads & FOMC Mins...
- The Talent divergence: KVP could not sleep last night, until he got a big rant off of his chest. Have you ever felt passed over, or seen/been super deserving of a particular opportunity, seen the most talented & driven individuals somehow keep struggling to get the traction & exposure that they fully deserve?
- Think we have all been there in one form or another & some of us are there right now. Are you trading at you proper valuation, which is function of not just compensation yet also all the other works (perks & cons) that come with a career, job, calling, your craft, etc.?
- Would love to get your thoughts & war stories, both positive & negative in the comments on the article – the finance industry, is missing the biggest arbitrage opportunity in its history, just fully taking care of its people & backing them all the way. Instead of the mentality of cost centers, it should be why are we investing in this candidate & how can we get a sustainable long-term value add where everybody thrives.
- Check it out here: Everyone says they want talent, but do people really appreciate talent?
- One thing KVP will share that was a huge epiphany at the time (& still continues to ripple out today), in taking his craft to that next level, was along these lines.
- If you are as good as you think you are, then you will find a way to do it yourself.
- As Kai Greene – professional body builder, philosopher, artist, master speaker – once said so eloquently, “No one is coming to rescue you”.
- Or just Be So Good They Can’t Ignore You. Thats pretty much what Bitcoin & Crypto has done, KVP used to get laughed out the room when talking about Bitcoin in 2014 & 2015... "get out of here with that funny money" with folks not realizing Bitcoin is actually hard currency as opposed to fiat currency.
Be +80x in sub 3yrs… This is the way.
Leviathan… Dec 2022
- Be +80x in sub 3yrs… This is the way.
- Have had this idea of a Dragon piece that KVP will try to put out tmr before going NK for two wks… lets see if tmr is the day for The Leviathan… Idea is a think piece that covers big macro strategic trends, seen from the vantage point of 2022.
- Yes, yes, because trying to forecast what will happen next wk, is just so damn easy & boring.
- If anyone has crazy and/or high conviction thoughts in regards to the lay of the land in Dec 2022 – be it asset classes, economics, geopolitics, central banks, etc – please feel free to ping ‘em across. They may potentially make the cut.
FOMC Mins + Must Reads…
- FOMC Mins: We touched on this in yesterdays Monday Dinner Sakes, CPI + YCC = FOMC Mins
- A must read flagged by our CIO & Chief Strategist Steen Jakobsen on our very own House Economist Christopher Dembik: The road to inflation in post-COVID times
No theme is more important in the macroeconomic space than inflation right now. All the clients we are talking to share their worries about inflation risk and are looking for investment strategies to hedge against inflation. In recent weeks, we have seen a series of upside surprises in inflation data, that mostly reflect the big imbalances in the economy following the COVID recession and some data noise. However, we cannot rule out that we will experience in the recovery phase a prolonged period of high inflation due to a sudden change in regime shift characterized by rising protectionism and more re-distributive policies to fight against inequalities. If I could give only one piece of advice to investors, read everything you can about inflation and especially stagflation.
Keep on the radar
- Plus watch out for our Currency Options Master Class that will be run on Thu 12:30 SGT (UTC +8), by our APAC head of Global Sales Trading, the always sharp Mahesh Sethuraman – who background is very much SITG (Skin in the game), given his buyside background & pragmatic approach. And even if you don’t trade currencies, there is always something to take away from a good masterclass. In fact he takes optionality so seriously, KVP just found out there is an additional class even earlier on Wed 12:30 SGT (UTC +8).
- There will be a more advanced course later in Sep & depending on traction, we can continue to enhance the content & strategies discussed – please feel free to ping across constructive feedback, what parts were helpful, where could we improve, is there something we should take out, etc.
To Keep In Mind Today
- UK: Inflation & PPI data due
- EZ: Current Account & Final CPIs figs, 30yr bond auction
- CA: Inflation & wholesale slaes
- US: Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Mins @ 02:00 SGT
Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the wayKVP
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.