Macro Dragon: New Dawn = New Quarter = Copper + Gold + Dollar

Macro Dragon: New Dawn = New Quarter = Copper + Gold + Dollar

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: New Dawn = New Quarter = Copper + Gold + Dollar


Top of Mind…

  • New day, new month, new quarter, new 2nd half! Again, its always about making the next iteration of whatever time-line, the best one yet. Nothing else matters at the end of the day, yet the intent to make it “the best one yet” is key.
  • It also deserves it weight in retrospection, reflection & calibration of the last month, quarter & 1st half of the year. What did I get right, why? What did I get wrong, why? How to we incredible the probability & volume of the first, whilst at best maintain or decrease the probability of the latter?
  • Again, just remember its systems over outcomes… if you find yourself getting too stuck on the results… you are likely focusing on the wrong thing/s.
  • Quarterly|Month Close, Gold 1783 +0.46%: Technically super bullish close to the 1st half, quarter, month & week as we are breaking out higher. As flagged in yest piece – this was one of two things that the Dragon has keen been watching.
  • Again the global macro landscape & confluence of irrevocable monetary & fiscal spending (until we get to infra. capex), creates a masterpiece picture for the precious metals complex.
  • You know the Dragon’s view on gold/precious metals space this is one of our Prime Conviction trades for 2020, that could have a shelf life for years to come. In many ways it is complementary to the Meta Trade & Trend of them all. Reach out to your friendly RM &/or GST partner, if you’d like to see our works on this theme & for our VIPs, speak to our strategists.

  • Quarterly|Month Close, DXY 97.33 -0.15%: Technically, bearish trend & breakdown lower continues on a daily chart basis. Need the daily bearish price to action to cascade into the weekly, then monthly charts. From the Dragon’s perspective we continue to be dollar bears so long as we don’t get two consecutive weekly closes above the pivotal 98.00 / 98.50 range… as that’s where the 200 DMA is. As to us getting every higher conviction on our bearish skew, it’s to take out the 200WMA of c. 96.50 – which is the last key rallying cry of the dollar bulls.
  • Interestingly enough, the USD weakness story from a G10 weighting perspective continues to be primarily from the Euro side. The yen will join the part (& not necessarily from a risk-off way) at some point in the 2nd half of the year, which will firmly break the back of the +12yrs strength of the USD.
  • With a range of 103.82 to 72.70, as well as an average of 89.427 – the dollar is still well in the upper echelons of its strength. What do we need for the next big leg lower? Likely a lot more fiscal spending & even more monetary measures – a la YCC & negative rates. All these are likely (similar to what we were saying about “gold lift-off” for the last few months & “one cannot own enough US duration” in Jan 7 Feb), a question of when, not if.

  • Lastly, hard to say if this is the start of a trend or not. Yet this was the 2nd consecutive quarterly close lower in the DXY since 1H17, that period eventually led to 3 more quarters of a lower dollar (5 quarters in total), which cumulated with a -15% peak to trough move (103.82 to 88.25).


  • Quarterly|Month Close, Copper 273.20 +1.27%: Whilst this was something that KVP was not watching – it’s definitely got his attention.
  • Copper is breaking out higher & it’s doing so, way before we see the “all fiscal policy roads leads to infrastructure” theme that we mentioned two wks back. So whilst its leaves KVP feeling like, this is a medium to long-term long exposure at some point… its also on the contingency tactical playbook as a massive short on any risk-off catalysts – say, Trump announcing phase one deal with China is over & Tariffs are getting smacked back on.
  • So whilst obviously last quarter was generally a record best quarter for most assets, given that 1Q was generally a record word for most assets – its worth noting that copper, which should be tied to global growth prospects was up +21.79% in 2Q, after a -20.34% 1Q drop.
  • So whilst note yet back to the c. $280 close of last year, at a current 273… that just $7 away – it makes you wonder where copper is heading, wants we get some actual real, multi-trillion dollar infrastructure bills announced. Obviously CLP & Chilean assets in general (Plus AUD & Australia) are worth keeping on ze radar on this. Key caveat here, KVP has done negative recent works on copper supply/demand dynamics & potentially that could be having an adverse impact in prices going up, if C19 infected areas globally are limiting supply both from a mining & logistics perspective.
  • FOMC Mins: These are out tonight, likely very little surprise to be seen, given how much of Powell, Mnuchin & other members of the FOMC that we have had on tape over last 2-3wks... yet if there is any focus its likely to be on YCC plus potential discussions around negative rates. Also worth noting its start of new month, quarter, 2nd half... so flows could continue to be noisy. 


To Keep In Mind Today

  • AU: AIG Mfg. Index 51.5a 41.6e, Building Approvals -16.4%a -7.0%e -2.1%p
  • NZ: Building Consents m/m 35.6%a -9.9%p
  • JP: Tankan Mfg. -34a -31e -8p, Tankan Non-Mfg. -17a -20e 8p, Final Mfg. PMI 40.1a 37.8e/p
  • CH: Caixin Mfg. PMI 51.2a 50.7e/p
  • EZ: Mfg. PMI 46.9e/p, GER Retail Sales
  • UK: Mfg. PMI 50.2e 50.1p, Nationwide House Prices
  • US: Mfg. PMI 49.6e/p, Non-Mfg. 49.5e 43.1p, Crude Oil Inventories, Total Vehicle Sales, FOMC Mins. (likely focus on YCC usage & negative rates references – if any)


Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way




The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract) and Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.