(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon WK #9: Powell Testimony, RBNZ, BoK, E-Feb, KVP's Tues Asymmetrical Trades Webinar
Top of Mind…
Rest of the Week & Other Reflections
- G20 towards the back of the wk should be the most civil one in what? 5yrs, given the new POTUS in the US… would expect a coordinated blanket statement around vaccine for everyone, governments need to do more & perhaps more actionably, firm return of the US to the climate crisis agenda (see latest Dragon Interview below).
- US/mkts still really focused on continued break-out higher in yields (watch questioning of Powell around that this wk), the freeze across the Midwest & in Texas specifically, the fiscal stimulus package (believe should be going to the house this wk) & testimonies around the whole GME / Robinhood / WSB / Melvin Capital / Point72 / Citadel drama.
- Despite last wk of the month, we will not be getting the super Friday NFPs out of the US, that will be for Fri 5 Mar. We do have secondary readings on the US 4Q GDP 4.2%e 4.0%p, as well personal income, personal spending & inventories due. PCE is also on the cards as are a few Fed activity measures (Chicago & Dallas), consumer confidence & durable goods.
- CBs: Light with rate decision out of New Zealand 0.25% e/p & South Korea 0.50% e/p.
- Key focus is likely on Powell Testimony on Tue & Wed
- Hols: JP out on Tues.
New Dragon Interview– Global Macro & Nature Conservationist Geo Chen
Our third Dragon Interview takes us to an outlier’s outlier, with a world class trader, investor & Nature Conservationist Geo Chen.
We had the pleasure of sitting down & speaking with Geo who is:
Board Member @ The Rain Forest Trust
Co-Founder of the Huang Chen Foundation [Nature Conservation Focus]
Whilst the interview was filmed at the tail-end of Nov 2020, there is something here for everyone to take something away, including bigger picture thoughts on 2021, broader implications of the macro regime that we are in, as well as overall framework, allocation & investment process.
Geo has been running his own capital across both liquid & illiquid strategies since 2017, chalking up +8x returns in the process, which more importantly fuel Geo & his family’s passion & calling, for Nature Conservation.
What is impressive outside of the large returns over the period, is that Geo somehow does it all – from trading to investing, to internal capital allocations as well as external allocations across the entire asset class & strategies spectrum. I.e. its tough enough to consistently do well in one area, lets alone across the board.
We cover his come up story, his framework + process & approach, his passion & the importance of the Nature Conservation. Lastly we close with Top of Mind Thoughts & views for 2021 & the general global macro regime that we are in.
We hope you enjoy the interview, as much as we did putting it together. And if there is something that you take away from this, be it inspiration, enhanced framework, investment thesis that resonates, left you thinking, etc…
Do consider making a donation to the Rain Forest Trust – which buys up rainforest land around the world & maintains them within an ecosystem of local residents.
From a markets perspective these are some of the areas we touched on:
- How Geo fared in 2020, given the massive bullishness in Jan, crazy sell-off in Feb & Mar, then once again bullish recovery in Apr & May
- Inflationary regime & the huge fiscal forces that we are seeing
- Precious Metals & US duration
- Bitcoin & Crypto
We hope you enjoyed this Dragon Interview, as much as we enjoyed putting it together
Ps. Yes, the video player in the platform/website is a pain with no ability for an acceleration option (been kicking up a storm about this internally for years). Will have a u-tube linked version later this wk, as its one of those pieces that is worth re-watching a few times… lot to digest.
Previous Dragon Interviews
Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.
This is the way