Market Quick Take – 14 January 2026

Market drivers and catalysts                      

• Equities: US slips on rate-cap worries, Europe holds near records, Asia rallies as Japan hits fresh highs and Hong Kong advances.
• Volatility: Low but rising, US PPI and retail sales, bank earnings, political risk premium
• Digital assets: Bitcoin above USD 95k, Strategy buying, ETF inflows supportive
• Currencies: USD stays firm after soft core CPI. Fresh JPY weakness as USDJPY eyes 160.00 level.
• Commodities: Silver surges above USD 90; gold and copper hitting fresh highs; oil steadies after rally with focus on Iran.
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields ease lower after soft US December CPI print
• Macro: US Nov PPI and Retail Sales, Dec New Home Sales

Macro headlines

• Trump dismissed Jamie Dimon’s criticism over the DOJ probe into the Federal Reserve, saying he JPM CEO was “wrong” to suggest he was undermining the independence of the central bank. Trump said he would press ahead with plans to announce Fed Chair Jerome Powell's replacement despite backlash to the probe, which has drawn criticism from Republican lawmakers.
• U.S. annual inflation held at 2.7% in December, consistent with November and expectations. Energy prices eased, gasoline fell, and natural gas rose. Used car price growth slowed; food and shelter costs increased. Core inflation stayed at 2.6%, its lowest since 2021, below the expected 2.7%. Monthly CPI rose 0.3% due to shelter costs, with core CPI at 0.2%, under the forecasted 0.3%.
• Trump reaffirmed a proposal for a 10% cap on credit card rates for one year. He announced upcoming housing affordability plans, with details to be unveiled at Davos. He praised the impact of the $200 billion mortgage bond purchase and stated that lowering mortgage rates would be easier with Fed support, adding that Powell will be out soon.
• The U.S. recorded a $144.7 billion budget deficit in December, up from $86.7 billion a year earlier. Receipts grew 6.6% to $484.4 billion, spurred by income taxes and social insurance. Outlays rose 16.3% to $629.1 billion, mainly for Social Security, Health and Medicare, and defense, affected by payment timing.
• The U.S. Economic Optimism Index fell to 47.2 in January from 47.9, below the forecast of 48.2. The Six-Month Outlook decreased 2.5% to 43.3, and Confidence in Federal Policies dropped 4.2% to 43.5. Meanwhile, the Personal Financial Outlook increased 1.7% to 54.9.
• Greenland's prime minister ruled out joining the US and said the Arctic territory prefers to be in a union with Denmark. The PM’s remarks come ahead of a high-stakes meeting of Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Vice President JD Vance in Washington today.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 1330 – US Nov PPI
• 1330 – US Nov Retail Sales
• 1500 – US Dec Existing Home Sales
• 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock report
• OPEC due to publish its Monthly Oil Market Report
• Fed speakers: Paulson (1450), Miran (1500), Bostic & Kashkari (1700), and Williams (1910)

Earnings events

• Today: Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo
• Thursday: TSMC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock
• Friday: Reliance Industries

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: Wall Street eases from records, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% to 6,963.74, the Dow off 0.8% to 49,191.99, and the Nasdaq down 0.1% to 23,709.87. An in-line consumer price index (CPI) report gives only brief support as investors refocus on politics around the Federal Reserve and on when rate cuts arrive in 2026. JPMorgan drops 4.2% as the market looks past solid results to weaker investment-banking fees, Visa falls 4.5% as a proposed one-year 10% cap on credit-card rates hits the payments chain, Delta slips 2.4% after a softer 2026 outlook, while Intel jumps 7.3% on an upgrade tied to cloud demand. Focus now turns to the next wave of earnings and fresh inflation and activity data.

• Europe: European equities stay close to record territory, with the Euro STOXX 50 up 0.2% to 6,029.83 and the STOXX 600 down 0.1% to 610.44, while the FTSE 100 slips 0.0% to 10,137.35. A softer U.S. core inflation print and calmer headlines on Federal Reserve independence help sentiment, even as construction stocks lag. Ørsted climbs 5.5% after a U.S. judge lets work restart on its Revolution Wind project, Airbus gains 1.9% after reporting stronger 2025 deliveries, TotalEnergies rises 2.3% as oil firms track firmer crude, and Vinci falls 4.5% after a downgrade tied to French tax risks. Investors now watch more earnings updates and the next round of U.S. data for rate expectations.
  
  
• Asia: Asia ends mostly higher, led by Japan as the Nikkei 225 jumps 3.1% to 53,549.16 and the Topix rises 2.4% to 3,598.89, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng adds 0.7% to 26,793 and China’s Shanghai Composite slips 0.7% to 4,137. Speculation about a snap Japanese election and a weaker yen lift exporters and chip names, while Hong Kong sentiment improves on talk the European Union may reconsider tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Toyota rallies 7.1% and Advantest gains 8.4% on the Japan surge, Dongfeng Motor rises 6.4% on the tariff headlines, and GigaDevice Semiconductor leaps 40.0% in its Hong Kong debut. Markets now look to the next earnings releases and any policy signals from Washington and Beijing.

Volatility

• Market volatility ticked higher but remains contained, reflecting cautious positioning rather than outright stress. The VIX closed at 15.98 on Tuesday, rising modestly even as the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, a typical pattern when investors add protection ahead of key data. Short-dated volatility moved more sharply, with VIX1D and VIX9D both higher, signalling sensitivity around today’s US PPI and retail sales releases, which could influence expectations for interest rates and consumer resilience. Bank earnings from Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi also add event risk.
• Beyond data, political noise continues to matter. Ongoing headlines around the Department of Justice and the Federal Reserve are keeping a small credibility risk premium embedded in markets, while energy remains a background tail risk given Middle East tensions.
• Expected move (SPX, week ahead): options pricing implies a move of roughly ±60 points (about ±0.9%) into the 16 January expiry.
• Skew check (today’s expiry): downside protection remains in demand, with put implied volatility slightly above call volatility at-the-money (around the 6,965 strike), suggesting investors are still paying more to insure against drawdowns than to chase upside.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets are holding up well, supported by corporate buying and steady ETF inflows. Bitcoin trades just above USD 95,000, after Strategy (MicroStrategy) disclosed another large bitcoin purchase, reinforcing confidence in long-term institutional demand. Ethereum is firmer around USD 3,330, while major alt-coins such as XRP and Solana show mixed but orderly price action.
• ETF flows remain the key signal for investors. On 13 January, US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs recorded strong net inflows, led by IBIT, while spot ethereum ETFs also attracted fresh capital, with ETHA among the gainers. That flow backdrop helps explain why pullbacks in bitcoin and ethereum continue to be shallow, even when macro headlines dominate.
• Crypto-linked equities participated in the move, with Coinbase, MicroStrategy, miners, and infrastructure names outperforming, reflecting renewed risk appetite rather than speculative excess. For investors, the focus now is whether ETF inflows persist after today’s US data; sustained inflows would likely keep volatility contained, while any reversal could amplify moves in higher-beta alt-coins.

Fixed Income

• Japan’s government bonds sold off again, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield hitting marginal new modern highs in above 2.18% before support was found. The benchmark 30-year JGB yield has not yet notched a new high for the cycle, but nearly touched the highest level of last week above 3.52% in Wednesday’s session.
• US treasury yields fell slightly after the release of a slightly softer core US CPI data point for December, with the benchmark 2-year yield easing off the highs of the year at 3.55% and trading toward 3.52% by late Tuesday, while the benchmark 10-year yield also edging away from the key range high above 4.20%, trading 4.165%.

Commodities

• An explosive start to the year has lifted the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index by 5%, taking it to just below its 2022 record on a weekly closing basis, set when energy and grain prices briefly spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Strength in early 2026 has been broad-based across energy, excluding natural gas, and especially across metals, where fresh record highs are being printed on an almost daily basis.
• Silver raced past USD 90 in Asia today, hitting a high of USD 91.55, as the parabolic rally continues despite technical indicators flashing “overbought.” Over the past month, gold’s volatile junior has gained USD 30. While it took 10 days to move from USD 60 to USD 70, the final USD 10 to USD 90 took just six days, underlining an accelerating, momentum-driven move fuelled by tight supply and FOMO. At some point, the risk of industrial demand destruction will arrest the rally, but that threshold has yet to be reached.
• Gold and copper also hit fresh record highs at USD 4,639/oz and USD 6.15/lb, respectively, as investors seek shelter in hard assets amid expectations of rate cuts, a softer dollar and not least rising concerns about financial stability, and multiple geopolitical risks. Demand for gold ETFs remains robust, with 13 tonnes added in the first two days of the week, lifting total holdings to a September 2022 high of 3,091 tonnes, valued at around USD 460 billion versus USD 170 billion back then.
• Oil steadied after the biggest four-day gain in more than six months as traders reassess the risk of a disruption to Iran’s 3.3 mb/d of exports, with the US considering a response to an increasingly deadly pushback against the regime in Tehran. While the crude market remains amply supplied, any material disruption would quickly change that balance. Attention today turns to OPEC’s monthly oil market report and the EIA’s weekly inventory update.

Currencies

• The US dollar recovered after a slight dip on the softer than expected US core December CPI, with USDJPY pulling to new local highs well clear of 159.00 in Asia’s Wednesday session, posting a session high of 159.45 before pulling back as market participants wonder whether and where Japanese officialdom may intervene to prevent further JPY weakness. Elsewhere, EURUSD was sticky near 1.1650 with little volatility, while AUDUSD dipped back below 0.6700 and USDCHF rose above 0.8000 again on the close Tuesday – a level that is the approximate midrange for that currency pair since last July, underlining the lack of volatility in many currencies outside the Japanese yen.
•  Sweden’s krona sold off against the Euro yesterday after closing blow 10.70 for the first time since late 2022 on Monday.

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