Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 24 April 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 24 April 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 24 April 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 24 April 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Key points:

  • Equities: Extending the bounce back on weaker US PMI figures and Musk growth hopes
  • FX: USD retreating from its highs on weak PMI figures vs Europe. AUD bid on Q1 GDP
  • Commodities: Risk-on tone and soft dollar boost sentiment
  • Fixed Income: After a solid 2-year US Treasury action, today’s 5-year notes sale is in focus
  • Economic data: German April IFO expected to confirm European growth rebound

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Strong gains across all equity markets (Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.7%) after weaker than estimated US PMI figures for April induced a halt to the “no US rate cut this year” narrative and then a sharply higher reaction in Tesla shares after Musk’s growth outlook. Tesla shares gained 13% in extended trading despite a huge miss on both revenue and operating income leading to Q1 free cash flow being $-2.53bn as Elon Musk delivered growth hopes. He announced an early production schedule (first half of 2025) of more affordable models (Model 2) and hinted of a “revolutionary” manufacturing process for its “Robotaxi” (Musk called it a “Cybercab”) which has been given a dedicated investor day on August 8. The US Senate also approved the $95bn aid package for Ukraine and Israel which is also including measures to force Chinese based ByteDance to sell its US TikTok business or face a ban. A lot of European earnings out this morning with luxury stocks in focus as Kering issues profit warning.

FX: Weak US PMIs were a contrast to the improving European PMIs, questioning how long the US exceptionalism will continue just as we highlighted in our Q2 FX outlook. Dollar slumped with the DXY index back below 106, boosting all of the other G10 currencies. GBPUSD rushed back above 1.24 to trade around 1.2450 as BOE speaker Haskel was hawkish. However, comments from BOE Chief Economist Pill seemed to make room for a rate cut in the summer, and we continue to be on the lookout for market pricing of the BOE rate cuts to shift dovish, suggesting GBP downside. AUDUSD also pushed above 0.65 with Australia’s Q1 CPI coming in higher than expected suggesting there may not be an urgent need for markets to price in RBA rate cuts. EURUSD marched above 1.07 but the break appeared fragile, while USDJPY printed fresh highs of 154.88 even as comments from authorities are hinting towards a clear intent to intervene.

Commodities: Crude oil prices trade marginally higher following another rollercoaster session on Tuesday that saw it end higher supported by a US stock draw, focus on Iranian sanctions and a general improvement in the risk sentiment. Ahead of EIA’s weekly crude and fuel stock report, the API reported a 3.2 million barrel decline in crude stocks. Copper holds above $4.40 after Tuesday’s correction triggered a buy-the-dip response, but some doubts remain about the timing of the latest surge. Gold meanwhile is consolidating after finding bids around $2300. The current correction was long overdue, and it will test its mettle and strength of underlying demand. Read our thoughts on the gold and silver correction in this article. Chicago wheat trades lower for the first time in five sessions, although losses could be limited by worries over adverse weather in the US and Russia, two key northern hemisphere exporters

Fixed income: Better-than-expected European composite PMI data spurred an increase in sovereign bond yields across the eurozone. Ten-year Bund yields climbed by 1.6 basis points to 2.5%, while Italian BTPs held steady, with 10-year yields remaining flat throughout the day. In contrast, Gilts underperformed European sovereigns, with Huw Pill's cautious stance on inflation leading markets to push back on expectations for BOE interest rate cuts, now anticipating two cuts over the year. We still favor short-term Italian BTPs over German Schatz; to know more, click here. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the yield curve twist-steepened as PMI data fell short of estimates, and a record-sized 2-year U.S. Treasury auction garnered strong demand. Two-year yields closed the day 3.6 basis points lower at 4.93%, while 30-year bond yields rose by 1.6 basis points to 4.72%. The focus turns to the upcoming 5-, and 7-year U.S. Treasury auctions (for a preview click here), along with preliminary U.S. GDP figures tomorrow and the PCE deflator on Friday. ECB’s De Cos, Villeroy, Cipollone and Nagel speak today.

Macro: US S&P Global Flash PMIs for April were soft, as Manufacturing fell into contractionary territory printing 49.9 (exp. 52.0, prev. 51.9). Services fell to 50.9 from 51.7, and shy of the forecasted 52.0, leaving the Composite at 50.9 from 52.1. ECB's de Guindos said a June rate cut looks like a set deal (unless there are surprises) with the end of inflation fight is in sight. Eurozone PMIs were supported by the services sector (France 50.5, Germany 53.3, and Euro-area 52.9) and Germany’s return to growth with composite PMI back above the 50-mark at 50.5 from 48.6 previously. UK firms also reported the strongest growth in almost a year withs services PMI at 54.9 from 53.0 previously although manufacturing was back in contraction at 48.7 from 50.4 in March. Eurozone’s PMI numbers hint that despite ECB cutting rates in June, it may remain difficult for them to commit to further rate cuts BOE speakers Haskel and Pill sounded cautious on rate cuts after Ramsden’s dovish comments last week. Haskel said UK food price inflation is "unusually high"; UK labour market is "extremely tight". Chief Economist Pill did appear to make room for rate cut as he said that they are now seeing signs of a downward shift in the persistent component of inflation dynamic, and a cut will not entirely undo the restrictive policy stance.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P500 rebound to minor resist at 5,070, trend still down, support at 4,845. Nasdaq 100 rebound to 17,478 resist from support at 16,963, strong resist at 17,808. DAX bouncing from support at 17,620, strong resist at 18,192, above bullish trend resumed. 
EURUSD range bound between 1.06 and 1.07, above 1.07 potential to 1.0777. GBPUSD rebounded to 0.382 retracement, support at 1.2375, no support until 1.2225. USDJPY uptrend struggling but potential to 155.30. EURJPY above resistance at 165.18 potential to 166.30, maybe 167. AUDJPY bullish potential to 102.00. AUDUSD 0.618 retracement at 0.6535, expect set back. Gold managed to close back above 2,319 strong support. Silver spiked down almost to 0.618 retracement at 26.42 support. Copper top and reversal pattern correction to 430-420 in the cards. Above 455 uptrend 470. Crude oil correction could be over, resuming uptrend. US 10-year T-yield uptrend likely to reach 4.70-4.75

Volatility: Volatility (VIX) continued its sharp decline on Tuesday, closing down $1.25 (7.38%) at $15.69. Starting the week at $21.33, the VIX is now nearly 27% lower. This drop, along with easing geopolitical tensions, fueled a strong rally in tech stocks and a positive market response. Bargain hunters pushed indices higher on anticipation of upcoming earnings reports. Tesla's less-worse-than-expected earnings report after-hours sent its price soaring over 10%. Today's focus shifts to Meta, Qualcomm, IBM, ServiceNow, AT&T, and Boeing, with potential for market volatility. Tomorrow, tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet (Google's parent), Caterpillar, and Intel are expected to significantly impact US markets. Futures markets reflect yesterday's trends: VIX futures are down ( -$0.145 | -0.91%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are up (+0.40% and +0.76%, respectively). Tuesday's top 10 traded stock options were TSLA, NVDA, AMD, AAPL, MARA, AMZN, PLTR, C, RIOT, and WMT. Options volumes are returning to normal levels after last Friday's busy options-expiry session.

In the news: Apple iPhone sales drop 19% in China as demand for Huawei smartphones soars, research says (CNBC), Tesla shares jump 13% after Musk says company aims to start production of affordable new EV by early 2025 (CNBC), Traders Add Bets That Fed Will Skip Interest-Rate Cuts This Year (Bloomberg), UK stocks may finally be back in fashion (Reuters), Japan finance minister says groundwork laid to take appropriate FX action (Reuters)

Macro events (all times are GMT): German Ifo Survey (Apr) exp 88.8 vs 87.8 prior (0800), US Durable Goods (Mar) exp 2.5% vs 1.3% prior (1230), EIA’s weekly crude and fuel stock report (1430), Speakers: ECB’s Cipollone; Schnabel

Earnings events: The earnings season continues today at full speed with Meta Q1 earnings tonight after the US market close being the most important release. Analysts expect a blowout quarter from Meta fuelled by strong ads pricing and demand. Read our earnings preview for this week here.

  • Today: Meta, IBM, ServiceNow, Thermo Fisher Scientific, DSV, Kone, Orange, Eni
  • Thursday: Kweichow Moutai, Airbus, AstraZeneca, Caterpillar, Union Pacific, Microsoft, Alphabet, T-Mobile, Intel, Merck & Co, Comcast, Neste, Sanofi, BNP Paribas, Dassault Systemes, STMicroelectronics, BASF, Deutsche Bank, Keyence
  • Friday: Chevron, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, TotalEnergies

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.